UEFA Europa League
Benfica vs Celtic prediction: UEFA Europa League, Thursday 15 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Benfica host Celtic in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday 15 October, kick-off 22:00 EAT. The match is played at Estadio da Luz (Lisbon). Benfica are 7th in the table with 3 points from 1 games; Celtic are 28th with 0.
Who will win Benfica vs Celtic?
The model makes Benfica clear favourites at 74%, with the draw at 16% and Celtic at 10%. Megapari's 1.29 on Benfica is shorter than our fair price of 1.34: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
Four markets clear our thresholds for this match: Benfica to win (74%), Benfica or draw (90%), over 1.5 goals (83%) and over 2.5 goals (63%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | Megapari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Benfica to win Tip | 74% | 1.34 | 1.29 |
| Draw | 16% | 6.24 | 6.03 |
| Celtic to win | 10% | 10.40 | 11.10 |
| Benfica or draw Tip | 90% | 1.11 | 1.05 |
| Draw or Celtic | 26% | 3.90 | 3.82 |
| Benfica or Celtic | 84% | 1.19 | 1.15 |
| Over 1.5 goals Tip | 83% | 1.21 | 1.10 |
| Over 2.5 goals Tip | 63% | 1.59 | 1.45 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37% | 2.70 | 2.50 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 59% | 1.69 | 1.69 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 52% | 1.93 | 1.89 |
| Both teams to score: no | 48% | 2.08 | 1.83 |
Odds: Megapari, as of 8 October 2026, 23:47 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Benfica vs Celtic
Goals are expected: 2.6 for Benfica and 0.9 for Celtic, 3.5 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 63%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 52%.
Benfica vs Celtic correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 2-0 at 10%, ahead of 2-1 (9%) and 3-0 (9%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 10 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2-0 | 10.1% | 9.95 |
| 2-1 | 9.2% | 10.92 |
| 3-0 | 8.8% | 11.42 |
| 3-1 | 8.0% | 12.52 |
| 1-0 | 7.4% | 13.51 |
Form: Benfica and Celtic in their last five
Benfica have won 4 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +9. Celtic have won 3 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +2. The results cover every competition in our data.
Benfica: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | Porto (away)Primeira Liga | 1-3 | L |
| 16 Sep 2026 | AC Milan (away)UEFA Europa League | 2-0 | W |
| 13 Sep 2026 | Gil Vicente (home)Primeira Liga | 3-1 | W |
| 9 Sep 2026 | Moreirense (away)Primeira Liga | 4-0 | W |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Marítimo (away)Primeira Liga | 3-0 | W |
Celtic: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | Rangers (home)Scottish Premiership | 0-1 | L |
| 17 Sep 2026 | Ferencvarosi (home)UEFA Europa League | 1-3 | L |
| 9 Sep 2026 | St. Johnstone (away)Scottish Premiership | 1-0 | W |
| 5 Sep 2026 | St. Mirren (away)Scottish Premiership | 2-1 | W |
| 2 Sep 2026 | Aberdeen (home)Scottish Premiership | 3-0 | W |
Benfica vs Celtic head to head
Benfica and Celtic have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.
The rest of the UEFA Europa League is on our Europa League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
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