UEFA Europa League
Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz prediction: UEFA Europa League, Thursday 15 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Bournemouth host Sturm Graz in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday 15 October, kick-off 22:00 EAT. The match is played at Vitality (Bournemouth). Bournemouth are 10th in the table with 3 points from 1 games; Sturm Graz are 17th with 1.
Who will win Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz?
The model makes Bournemouth clear favourites at 73%, with the draw at 18% and Sturm Graz at 10%. Megapari's 1.21 on Bournemouth is shorter than our fair price of 1.37: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
Two markets clear our thresholds for this match: Bournemouth to win (73%) and Bournemouth or draw (90%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | Megapari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth to win Tip | 73% | 1.37 | 1.21 |
| Draw | 18% | 5.70 | 7.60 |
| Sturm Graz to win | 10% | 10.29 | 13.40 |
| Bournemouth or draw Tip | 90% | 1.11 | 1.03 |
| Draw or Sturm Graz | 27% | 3.67 | 4.72 |
| Bournemouth or Sturm Graz | 82% | 1.21 | 1.10 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | 1.37 | 1.07 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 1.71 | 1.35 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42% | 2.40 | 2.86 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 73% | 1.36 | 1.86 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 49% | 2.06 | 1.89 |
| Both teams to score: no | 51% | 1.94 | 1.83 |
Odds: Megapari, as of 8 October 2026, 23:47 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz
Goals are expected: 1.9 for Bournemouth and 0.7 for Sturm Graz, 2.5 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 58%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 49%.
Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-0 at 15%, ahead of 2-0 (14%) and 1-1 (10%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 7 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 14.7% | 6.82 |
| 2-0 | 13.9% | 7.19 |
| 1-1 | 10.3% | 9.68 |
| 2-1 | 9.2% | 10.91 |
| 3-0 | 8.6% | 11.67 |
Form: Bournemouth and Sturm Graz in their last five
Bournemouth have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +0. Sturm Graz have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -4. The results cover every competition in our data.
Bournemouth: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | Liverpool (home)Premier League | 0-1 | L |
| 17 Sep 2026 | Real Sociedad (away)UEFA Europa League | 2-1 | W |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Brentford (home)Premier League | 2-2 | D |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Newcastle (away)Premier League | 2-2 | D |
| 29 Aug 2026 | Everton (home)Premier League | 1-1 | D |
Sturm Graz: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | Red Bull Salzburg (away)Austrian Bundesliga | 0-3 | L |
| 16 Sep 2026 | Rennes (home)UEFA Europa League | 0-0 | D |
| 13 Sep 2026 | LASK (home)Austrian Bundesliga | 2-1 | W |
| 30 Aug 2026 | Rapid Wien (away)Austrian Bundesliga | 1-3 | L |
| 22 Aug 2026 | Austria Lustenau (home)Austrian Bundesliga | 1-1 | D |
Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz head to head
Bournemouth and Sturm Graz have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.
The rest of the UEFA Europa League is on our Europa League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
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