UEFA Conference League
Brighton vs Zalgiris Kaunas prediction: UEFA Conference League, Thursday 15 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Brighton host Zalgiris Kaunas in the UEFA Conference League on Thursday 15 October, kick-off 22:00 EAT. The match is played at American Express (Brighton and Hove).
Who will win Brighton vs Zalgiris Kaunas?
The model makes Brighton clear favourites at 92%, with the draw at 6% and Zalgiris Kaunas at 2%. Megapari's 1.03 on Brighton is shorter than our fair price of 1.09: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
Four markets clear our thresholds for this match: Brighton to win (92%), Brighton or draw (98%), over 1.5 goals (84%) and over 2.5 goals (71%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | Megapari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton to win Tip | 92% | 1.09 | 1.03 |
| Draw | 6% | 16.50 | 21.00 |
| Zalgiris Kaunas to win | 2% | 48.78 | 55.00 |
| Brighton or draw Tip | 98% | 1.02 | – |
| Draw or Zalgiris Kaunas | 8% | 12.33 | – |
| Brighton or Zalgiris Kaunas | 94% | 1.06 | – |
| Over 1.5 goals Tip | 84% | 1.18 | 1.02 |
| Over 2.5 goals Tip | 71% | 1.41 | 1.18 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 29% | 3.46 | 3.84 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 56% | 1.79 | 2.24 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 40% | 2.51 | 2.68 |
| Both teams to score: no | 60% | 1.66 | 1.41 |
Odds: Megapari, as of 8 October 2026, 23:47 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Brighton vs Zalgiris Kaunas
Goals are expected: 3.3 for Brighton and 0.5 for Zalgiris Kaunas, 3.8 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 71%. Zalgiris Kaunas may struggle to score at all: both teams to score is only 40%.
Brighton vs Zalgiris Kaunas correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 3-0 at 14%, ahead of 2-0 (13%) and 4-0 (12%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 7 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 3-0 | 13.9% | 7.18 |
| 2-0 | 12.5% | 7.99 |
| 4-0 | 11.6% | 8.61 |
| 5-0 | 7.8% | 12.90 |
| 1-0 | 7.3% | 13.61 |
Form: Brighton and Zalgiris Kaunas in their last five
Brighton have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +11. Zalgiris Kaunas have won 2 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -7. The results cover every competition in our data.
Brighton: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Arsenal (home)Premier League | 3-0 | W |
| 13 Sep 2026 | Coventry City (away)Premier League | 5-0 | W |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Leeds (home)Premier League | 1-1 | D |
| 30 Aug 2026 | Chelsea (away)Premier League | 3-4 | L |
| 27 Aug 2026 | Tromso (home)UEFA Conference League | 4-0 | W |
Zalgiris Kaunas: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Aug 2026 | Beşiktaş (home)UEFA Europa League | 1-0 | W |
| 20 Aug 2026 | Beşiktaş (away)UEFA Europa League | 0-3 | L |
| 11 Aug 2026 | Dinamo Zagreb (home)UEFA Champions League | 1-2 | L |
| 4 Aug 2026 | Dinamo Zagreb (away)UEFA Champions League | 0-5 | L |
| 29 Jul 2026 | KÍ (home)UEFA Champions League | 1-0 | W |
Brighton vs Zalgiris Kaunas head to head
Brighton and Zalgiris Kaunas have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.
All the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
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