EFL Championship
Burnley vs Wolves prediction: EFL Championship, Friday 16 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Burnley
Wolves
- Burnley
- 34%Megapari 3.11
- Draw
- 26%Megapari 3.50
- Wolves
- 39%Megapari 2.15
No tip: no market clears our thresholds for this match.
xG 1.4–1.4 · likeliest 1-1 (12%)
Burnley host Wolves in the EFL Championship on Friday 16 October, kick-off 22:00 EAT.
Who will win Burnley vs Wolves?
There is little to separate the sides: Burnley 34%, the draw 26%, Wolves 39%. Megapari's 2.15 on Wolves is shorter than our fair price of 2.54: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
No market clears our thresholds for this match, so it carries no tip in the daily lists; the table below is the model's full view of it.
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | Megapari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley to win | 34% | 2.92 | 3.11 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.79 | 3.50 |
| Wolves to win | 39% | 2.54 | 2.15 |
| Burnley or draw | 61% | 1.65 | – |
| Draw or Wolves | 66% | 1.52 | – |
| Burnley or Wolves | 74% | 1.36 | – |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | 1.31 | – |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 1.88 | – |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47% | 2.14 | – |
| Under 3.5 goals | 69% | 1.44 | – |
| Both teams to score: yes | 55% | 1.81 | – |
| Both teams to score: no | 45% | 2.24 | – |
Odds: Megapari, as of 9 October 2026, 23:46 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Burnley vs Wolves
Expected goals are 1.4 for Burnley and 1.4 for Wolves, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 53%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 55%.
Burnley vs Wolves correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-1 at 12%, ahead of 2-1 (9%) and 1-0 (8%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.4% | 8.08 |
| 2-1 | 8.6% | 11.70 |
| 1-0 | 8.2% | 12.15 |
| 1-2 | 8.1% | 12.30 |
| 0-1 | 7.8% | 12.82 |
Form: Burnley and Wolves in their last five
Burnley have not won in 5 (3 draws, 2 defeats) and scored 5 in that run. Wolves have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +3. The results cover every competition in our data.
Burnley: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Derby County (home)EFL Championship | 1-1 | D |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Swansea City (away)EFL Championship | 1-3 | L |
| 8 Sep 2026 | Wrexham (away)EFL Championship | 1-1 | D |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Bristol City (home)EFL Championship | 1-2 | L |
| 2 Sep 2026 | Middlesbrough (home)EFL Championship | 1-1 | D |
Wolves: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | West Bromwich Albion (home)EFL Championship | 1-0 | W |
| 13 Sep 2026 | Sheffield United (away)EFL Championship | 1-0 | W |
| 6 Sep 2026 | Birmingham City (away)EFL Championship | 2-2 | D |
| 1 Sep 2026 | West Ham (away)EFL Championship | 2-4 | L |
| 29 Aug 2026 | Stoke City (home)EFL Championship | 4-1 | W |
Burnley vs Wolves head to head
In their last four meetings in our data, Burnley won 1, Wolves won 1 and 2 were drawn. The most recent, on 24 May 2026, finished Burnley 1–1 Wolves.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 24 May 2026 | Burnley – WolvesPremier League | 1-1 |
| 26 Oct 2025 | Wolves – BurnleyPremier League | 2-3 |
| 2 Apr 2024 | Burnley – WolvesPremier League | 1-1 |
| 5 Dec 2023 | Wolves – BurnleyPremier League | 1-0 |
The rest of the EFL Championship is on our Championship page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
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