UEFA Conference League
CSKA Sofia vs Monaco prediction: UEFA Conference League, Thursday 15 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
CSKA Sofia
Monaco
- CSKA Sofia
- 24%Megapari 6.17
- Draw
- 24%Megapari 4.57
- Monaco
- 52%Megapari 1.53
No tip: no market clears our thresholds for this match.
xG 1.3–1.5 · likeliest 1-1 (12%)
CSKA Sofia host Monaco in the UEFA Conference League on Thursday 15 October, kick-off 19:45 EAT. The match is played at Vasil Levski (Sofia).
Who will win CSKA Sofia vs Monaco?
Monaco are favourites, though not by much: 52% to win, 24% for the draw and 24% for CSKA Sofia. Megapari's 1.53 on Monaco is shorter than our fair price of 1.91: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
No market clears our thresholds for this match, so it carries no tip in the daily lists; the table below is the model's full view of it.
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | Megapari |
|---|---|---|---|
| CSKA Sofia to win | 24% | 4.13 | 6.17 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.24 | 4.57 |
| Monaco to win | 52% | 1.91 | 1.53 |
| CSKA Sofia or draw | 48% | 2.09 | 2.59 |
| Draw or Monaco | 76% | 1.32 | 1.13 |
| CSKA Sofia or Monaco | 76% | 1.31 | 1.22 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | 1.31 | 1.15 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 1.81 | 1.69 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45% | 2.23 | 2.24 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 69% | 1.45 | 1.40 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 54% | 1.84 | 1.74 |
| Both teams to score: no | 46% | 2.19 | 1.98 |
Odds: Megapari, as of 8 October 2026, 23:47 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in CSKA Sofia vs Monaco
Expected goals are 1.3 for CSKA Sofia and 1.5 for Monaco, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 55%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 54%.
CSKA Sofia vs Monaco correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-1 at 12%, ahead of 1-2 (9%) and 0-1 (8%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.3% | 8.15 |
| 1-2 | 8.9% | 11.27 |
| 0-1 | 8.5% | 11.78 |
| 2-1 | 7.8% | 12.89 |
| 1-0 | 7.4% | 13.57 |
Form: CSKA Sofia and Monaco in their last five
CSKA Sofia are unbeaten in 5 (3 wins, 2 draws), with 11 goals scored and 4 conceded. Monaco are unbeaten in 5 (4 wins, 1 draw), with 11 goals scored and 4 conceded. The results cover every competition in our data.
CSKA Sofia: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv (away)Bulgarian First League | 1-1 | D |
| 16 Sep 2026 | Lokomotiv Sofia (away)Bulgarian First League | 2-0 | W |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Arda Kardzhali (home)Bulgarian First League | 4-1 | W |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Spartak Varna (away)Bulgarian First League | 1-1 | D |
| 30 Aug 2026 | Cherno More Varna (home)Bulgarian First League | 3-1 | W |
Monaco: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Sep 2026 | Lens (home)Ligue 1 | 2-1 | W |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Strasbourg (away)Ligue 1 | 1-1 | D |
| 4 Sep 2026 | PSG (away)Ligue 1 | 2-1 | W |
| 30 Aug 2026 | Marseille (home)Ligue 1 | 2-0 | W |
| 27 Aug 2026 | Gornik Zabrze (home)UEFA Conference League | 4-1 | W |
CSKA Sofia vs Monaco head to head
CSKA Sofia and Monaco have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.
All the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
+100% bonus on your first deposit with promo code TIPSQUANT