UEFA Conference League
Egnatia vs Midtjylland prediction: UEFA Conference League, Thursday 15 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Egnatia host Midtjylland in the UEFA Conference League on Thursday 15 October, kick-off 19:45 EAT. The match is played at Elbasan Arena (Elbasan).
Who will win Egnatia vs Midtjylland?
Midtjylland are favourites, though not by much: 59% to win, 21% for the draw and 20% for Egnatia. Megapari's 1.57 on Midtjylland is shorter than our fair price of 1.69: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
Four markets clear our thresholds for this match: Midtjylland to win (59%), draw or Midtjylland (80%), over 1.5 goals (85%) and over 2.5 goals (60%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | Megapari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Egnatia to win | 20% | 5.05 | 6.02 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.72 | 4.30 |
| Midtjylland to win Tip | 59% | 1.69 | 1.57 |
| Egnatia or draw | 41% | 2.44 | 2.48 |
| Draw or Midtjylland Tip | 80% | 1.25 | 1.14 |
| Egnatia or Midtjylland | 79% | 1.27 | 1.24 |
| Over 1.5 goals Tip | 85% | 1.17 | 1.21 |
| Over 2.5 goals Tip | 60% | 1.66 | 1.80 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40% | 2.51 | 2.07 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 55% | 1.83 | 1.35 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56% | 1.77 | 1.83 |
| Both teams to score: no | 44% | 2.29 | 1.87 |
Odds: Megapari, as of 8 October 2026, 23:47 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Egnatia vs Midtjylland
Goals are expected: 1.5 for Egnatia and 2.4 for Midtjylland, 3.9 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 60%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 56%.
Egnatia vs Midtjylland correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-2 at 9%, ahead of 1-1 (8%) and 1-3 (7%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 11 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-2 | 8.7% | 11.45 |
| 1-1 | 7.6% | 13.09 |
| 1-3 | 6.9% | 14.45 |
| 2-2 | 6.6% | 15.13 |
| 0-2 | 5.8% | 17.36 |
Form: Egnatia and Midtjylland in their last five
Egnatia have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +0. Midtjylland are unbeaten in 5 (2 wins, 3 draws), with 10 goals scored and 5 conceded. The results cover every competition in our data.
Egnatia: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Aug 2026 | Lillestrom (away)UEFA Europa League | 1-2 | L |
| 20 Aug 2026 | Lillestrom (home)UEFA Europa League | 0-0 | D |
| 13 Aug 2026 | Shamrock Rovers (home)UEFA Europa League | 5-1 | W |
| 4 Aug 2026 | Shamrock Rovers (away)UEFA Europa League | 1-3 | L |
| 28 Jul 2026 | Celje (away)UEFA Champions League | 2-3 | L |
Midtjylland: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Odense (away)Danish Superliga | 1-1 | D |
| 14 Sep 2026 | Brondby (home)Danish Superliga | 4-1 | W |
| 7 Sep 2026 | Nordsjælland (home)Danish Superliga | 2-2 | D |
| 2 Sep 2026 | Aarhus (away)Danish Superliga | 2-0 | W |
| 30 Aug 2026 | Silkeborg (away)Danish Superliga | 1-1 | D |
Egnatia vs Midtjylland head to head
Egnatia and Midtjylland have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.
All the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
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