UEFA Conference League
Freiburg vs Jablonec prediction: UEFA Conference League, Thursday 15 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Freiburg host Jablonec in the UEFA Conference League on Thursday 15 October, kick-off 22:00 EAT. The match is played at Europa Park (Freiburg im Breisgau).
Who will win Freiburg vs Jablonec?
The model makes Freiburg clear favourites at 69%, with the draw at 19% and Jablonec at 11%. Megapari's 1.35 on Freiburg is shorter than our fair price of 1.44: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
Two markets clear our thresholds for this match: Freiburg to win (69%) and Freiburg or draw (89%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | Megapari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Freiburg to win Tip | 69% | 1.44 | 1.35 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.19 | 5.24 |
| Jablonec to win | 11% | 8.76 | 9.40 |
| Freiburg or draw Tip | 89% | 1.13 | 1.06 |
| Draw or Jablonec | 31% | 3.26 | 3.30 |
| Freiburg or Jablonec | 81% | 1.24 | 1.18 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | 1.30 | 1.12 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 1.74 | 1.49 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42% | 2.36 | 2.30 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 68% | 1.47 | 1.62 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 51% | 1.96 | 1.82 |
| Both teams to score: no | 49% | 2.04 | 1.88 |
Odds: Megapari, as of 8 October 2026, 23:47 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Freiburg vs Jablonec
Expected goals are 2.1 for Freiburg and 0.8 for Jablonec, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 58%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 51%.
Freiburg vs Jablonec correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 2-0 at 12%, ahead of 1-0 (11%) and 2-1 (10%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2-0 | 12.2% | 8.16 |
| 1-0 | 11.3% | 8.85 |
| 2-1 | 9.7% | 10.33 |
| 1-1 | 9.6% | 10.43 |
| 3-0 | 8.6% | 11.67 |
Form: Freiburg and Jablonec in their last five
Freiburg are unbeaten in 5 (4 wins, 1 draw), with 16 goals scored and 4 conceded. Jablonec have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +0. The results cover every competition in our data.
Freiburg: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Eintracht Frankfurt (away)Bundesliga | 2-2 | D |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Gladbach (home)Bundesliga | 5-0 | W |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Paderborn 07 (away)Bundesliga | 1-0 | W |
| 30 Aug 2026 | SV Werder Bremen (home)Bundesliga | 4-1 | W |
| 27 Aug 2026 | Motherwell (home)UEFA Conference League | 4-1 | W |
Jablonec: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | Zlin (home)Czech First League | 1-1 | D |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Sparta Prague (away)Czech First League | 0-2 | L |
| 9 Sep 2026 | Baník Ostrava (home)Czech First League | 3-0 | W |
| 6 Sep 2026 | Slovan Liberec (home)Czech First League | 1-2 | L |
| 2 Sep 2026 | Bohemians 1905 Prague (away)Czech First League | 1-1 | D |
Freiburg vs Jablonec head to head
Freiburg and Jablonec have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.
How the odds have moved
Megapari's price on Freiburg has shortened from 1.36 to 1.35 since the line opened: the market has moved towards them. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.60 to 1.49, so the market now expects more goals than at the open.
| Bet | Opening odds | Latest odds |
|---|---|---|
| Freiburg to win | 1.36 | 1.35 ↓ |
| Draw | 5.19 | 5.24 ↑ |
| Jablonec to win | 9.05 | 9.40 ↑ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.60 | 1.49 ↓ |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.43 | 2.30 ↓ |
| Both teams to score: yes | 1.83 | 1.82 ↓ |
| Both teams to score: no | 1.87 | 1.88 ↑ |
Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.
All the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
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