Serie A
Frosinone vs US Sassuolo prediction: Serie A, Friday 16 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Frosinone
US Sassuolo
- Frosinone
- 38%Megapari 2.53
- Draw
- 27%Megapari 3.54
- US Sassuolo
- 35%Megapari 2.96
- Both teams to score: yes60% · fair 1.671.44Bet
xG 1.4–1.4 · likeliest 1-1 (13%)
Frosinone host US Sassuolo in Serie A on Friday 16 October, kick-off 21:45 EAT. The match is played at Stadio Benito Stirpe (Frosinone). Frosinone are 6th in the table with 10 points from 5 games; US Sassuolo are 10th with 7.
Who will win Frosinone vs US Sassuolo?
There is little to separate the sides: Frosinone 38%, the draw 27%, US Sassuolo 35%. Megapari's 2.53 on Frosinone is shorter than our fair price of 2.62: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
One market clears our thresholds for this match: both teams to score: yes (60%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | Megapari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Frosinone to win | 38% | 2.62 | 2.53 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.69 | 3.54 |
| US Sassuolo to win | 35% | 2.88 | 2.96 |
| Frosinone or draw | 65% | 1.53 | 1.45 |
| Draw or US Sassuolo | 62% | 1.62 | 1.58 |
| Frosinone or US Sassuolo | 73% | 1.37 | 1.34 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | 1.32 | 1.14 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 1.77 | 1.57 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43% | 2.31 | 2.42 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 70% | 1.43 | 1.67 |
| Both teams to score: yes Tip | 60% | 1.67 | 1.44 |
| Both teams to score: no | 40% | 2.48 | 2.61 |
Odds: Megapari, as of 9 October 2026, 23:46 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Frosinone vs US Sassuolo
Expected goals are 1.4 for Frosinone and 1.4 for US Sassuolo, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 57%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 60%.
Frosinone vs US Sassuolo correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-1 at 13%, ahead of 2-1 (8%) and 1-0 (8%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.5% | 7.99 |
| 2-1 | 8.4% | 11.90 |
| 1-0 | 8.3% | 12.05 |
| 1-2 | 8.2% | 12.14 |
| 0-1 | 8.1% | 12.29 |
Form: Frosinone and US Sassuolo in their last five
Frosinone have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +5. US Sassuolo have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +0. The results cover every competition in our data.
Frosinone: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | Como (home)Serie A | 2-0 | W |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Genoa CFC (away)Serie A | 1-1 | D |
| 6 Sep 2026 | Venezia (home)Serie A | 3-2 | W |
| 29 Aug 2026 | Fiorentina (away)Serie A | 3-0 | W |
| 23 Aug 2026 | Juventus (home)Serie A | 0-1 | L |
US Sassuolo: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Sep 2026 | Monza (away)Serie A | 1-2 | L |
| 13 Sep 2026 | Juventus (home)Serie A | 3-2 | W |
| 6 Sep 2026 | Bologna (away)Serie A | 2-2 | D |
| 29 Aug 2026 | Torino (home)Serie A | 2-1 | W |
| 23 Aug 2026 | Atalanta (away)Serie A | 1-2 | L |
Frosinone vs US Sassuolo head to head
In their last three meetings in our data, Frosinone won 1, US Sassuolo won 2 and none was drawn. The most recent, on 13 May 2025, finished US Sassuolo 0–1 Frosinone.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 13 May 2025 | US Sassuolo – FrosinoneSerie B | 0-1 |
| 14 Dec 2024 | Frosinone – US SassuoloSerie B | 1-2 |
| 9 Mar 2024 | US Sassuolo – FrosinoneSerie A | 1-0 |
The rest of Serie A is on our Serie A page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
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