UEFA Conference League
Hajduk Split vs Ajax prediction: UEFA Conference League, Thursday 15 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Hajduk Split host Ajax in the UEFA Conference League on Thursday 15 October, kick-off 19:45 EAT. The match is played at Poljud (Split).
Who will win Hajduk Split vs Ajax?
Ajax are favourites, though not by much: 52% to win, 22% for the draw and 26% for Hajduk Split. Megapari's 1.47 on Ajax is shorter than our fair price of 1.91: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
Two markets clear our thresholds for this match: over 1.5 goals (81%) and over 2.5 goals (60%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | Megapari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hajduk Split to win | 26% | 3.89 | 6.64 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.58 | 4.83 |
| Ajax to win | 52% | 1.91 | 1.47 |
| Hajduk Split or draw | 48% | 2.10 | 2.75 |
| Draw or Ajax | 74% | 1.35 | 1.11 |
| Hajduk Split or Ajax | 78% | 1.28 | 1.20 |
| Over 1.5 goals Tip | 81% | 1.23 | 1.12 |
| Over 2.5 goals Tip | 60% | 1.66 | 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40% | 2.52 | 2.28 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 62% | 1.61 | 1.60 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57% | 1.75 | 1.69 |
| Both teams to score: no | 43% | 2.34 | 2.05 |
Odds: Megapari, as of 8 October 2026, 23:47 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Hajduk Split vs Ajax
Goals are expected: 1.6 for Hajduk Split and 1.7 for Ajax, 3.3 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 60%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 57%.
Hajduk Split vs Ajax correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-1 at 10%, ahead of 1-2 (8%) and 2-1 (8%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 10 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 10.3% | 9.70 |
| 1-2 | 8.4% | 11.89 |
| 2-1 | 8.1% | 12.35 |
| 2-2 | 6.9% | 14.56 |
| 0-1 | 5.7% | 17.64 |
Form: Hajduk Split and Ajax in their last five
Hajduk Split have won 4 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +5. Ajax have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +10. The results cover every competition in our data.
Hajduk Split: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | Rijeka (away)Croatian HNL | 0-3 | L |
| 13 Sep 2026 | Slaven Belupo (home)Croatian HNL | 1-0 | W |
| 6 Sep 2026 | Rudes (away)Croatian HNL | 4-0 | W |
| 31 Aug 2026 | NK Lokomotiva (home)Croatian HNL | 2-0 | W |
| 27 Aug 2026 | Raków Częstochowa (away)UEFA Conference League | 3-2 | W |
Ajax: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | SBV Excelsior (home)Eredivisie | 2-2 | D |
| 15 Sep 2026 | Willem II (home)Eredivisie | 5-1 | W |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Fortuna Sittard (away)Eredivisie | 5-1 | W |
| 5 Sep 2026 | PSV Eindhoven (home)Eredivisie | 1-3 | L |
| 30 Aug 2026 | Telstar (away)Eredivisie | 4-0 | W |
Hajduk Split vs Ajax head to head
Hajduk Split and Ajax have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.
How the odds have moved
Megapari's price on Ajax has shortened from 1.55 to 1.47 since the line opened: the market has moved towards them.
| Bet | Opening odds | Latest odds |
|---|---|---|
| Hajduk Split to win | 5.86 | 6.64 ↑ |
| Draw | 4.57 | 4.83 ↑ |
| Ajax to win | 1.55 | 1.47 ↓ |
| Both teams to score: yes | 1.64 | 1.69 ↑ |
| Both teams to score: no | 2.13 | 2.05 ↓ |
Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.
All the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
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