Heart of Midlothian vs Nordsjælland prediction: UEFA Conference League, Thursday 15 October

Heart of Midlothian host Nordsjælland in the UEFA Conference League on Thursday 15 October, kick-off 22:00 EAT. The match is played at Tynecastle (Edinburgh).

Who will win Heart of Midlothian vs Nordsjælland?

There is little to separate the sides: Heart of Midlothian 32%, the draw 26%, Nordsjælland 42%. Megapari's 2.35 on Nordsjælland sits right on our fair price of 2.40.

One market clears our thresholds for this match: both teams to score: yes (60%).

Odds: Megapari, as of 8 October 2026, 23:47 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Heart of Midlothian vs Nordsjælland

Expected goals are 1.3 for Heart of Midlothian and 1.6 for Nordsjælland, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 58%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 60%.

Heart of Midlothian vs Nordsjælland correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 12%, ahead of 1-2 (9%) and 0-1 (8%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.

Form: Heart of Midlothian and Nordsjælland in their last five

Heart of Midlothian have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +3. Nordsjælland have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -1. The results cover every competition in our data.

Heart of Midlothian: last five matches

Nordsjælland: last five matches

Heart of Midlothian vs Nordsjælland head to head

Heart of Midlothian and Nordsjælland have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on Nordsjælland has shortened from 2.45 to 2.35 since the line opened: the market has moved towards them. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.61 to 1.49, so the market now expects more goals than at the open.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

All the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.