Eredivisie
Heerenveen vs SBV Excelsior prediction: Eredivisie, Friday 16 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Heerenveen host SBV Excelsior in Eredivisie on Friday 16 October, kick-off 21:00 EAT. The match is played at Abe Lenstra (Heerenveen). Heerenveen are 10th in the table with 9 points from 7 games; SBV Excelsior are 7th with 11.
Who will win Heerenveen vs SBV Excelsior?
Heerenveen are favourites, though not by much: 49% to win, 24% for the draw and 27% for SBV Excelsior. Megapari's 1.75 on Heerenveen is shorter than our fair price of 2.05: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
Two markets clear our thresholds for this match: over 2.5 goals (60%) and both teams to score: yes (61%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | Megapari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Heerenveen to win | 49% | 2.05 | 1.75 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.11 | 4.08 |
| SBV Excelsior to win | 27% | 3.72 | 4.18 |
| Heerenveen or draw | 73% | 1.37 | 1.23 |
| Draw or SBV Excelsior | 51% | 1.95 | 2.07 |
| Heerenveen or SBV Excelsior | 76% | 1.32 | 1.24 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | 1.30 | 1.07 |
| Over 2.5 goals Tip | 60% | 1.66 | 1.37 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40% | 2.52 | 2.66 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 68% | 1.47 | 1.77 |
| Both teams to score: yes Tip | 61% | 1.64 | 1.41 |
| Both teams to score: no | 39% | 2.55 | 2.69 |
Odds: Megapari, as of 9 October 2026, 23:46 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Heerenveen vs SBV Excelsior
Goals are expected: 1.6 for Heerenveen and 1.3 for SBV Excelsior, 2.9 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 60%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 61%.
Heerenveen vs SBV Excelsior correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-1 at 12%, ahead of 2-1 (9%) and 1-0 (8%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.9% | 8.40 |
| 2-1 | 9.1% | 10.98 |
| 1-0 | 8.3% | 12.09 |
| 1-2 | 7.5% | 13.32 |
| 2-0 | 6.9% | 14.41 |
Form: Heerenveen and SBV Excelsior in their last five
Heerenveen have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +1. SBV Excelsior have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +3. The results cover every competition in our data.
Heerenveen: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Oct 2026 | PSV Eindhoven (away)Eredivisie | 0-2 | L |
| 19 Sep 2026 | Sparta Rotterdam (away)Eredivisie | 4-0 | W |
| 13 Sep 2026 | Telstar (home)Eredivisie | 0-0 | D |
| 6 Sep 2026 | AZ (home)Eredivisie | 2-3 | L |
| 30 Aug 2026 | Willem II (away)Eredivisie | 2-2 | D |
SBV Excelsior: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Ajax (away)Eredivisie | 2-2 | D |
| 13 Sep 2026 | Utrecht (home)Eredivisie | 1-2 | L |
| 8 Sep 2026 | NEC (away)Eredivisie | 2-2 | D |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Willem II (away)Eredivisie | 3-0 | W |
| 29 Aug 2026 | Sparta Rotterdam (home)Eredivisie | 2-1 | W |
Heerenveen vs SBV Excelsior head to head
In their last three meetings in our data, Heerenveen won 2, SBV Excelsior won 1 and none was drawn. The most recent, on 7 March 2026, finished SBV Excelsior 1–2 Heerenveen.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 7 Mar 2026 | SBV Excelsior – HeerenveenEredivisie | 1-2 |
| 4 Oct 2025 | Heerenveen – SBV ExcelsiorEredivisie | 2-1 |
| 19 Jan 2024 | SBV Excelsior – HeerenveenEredivisie | 3-0 |
All the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
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