Ikorodu City vs Kwara United prediction: Nigeria Premier Football League, Saturday 10 October

Ikorodu City host Kwara United in the Nigeria Premier Football League on Saturday 10 October, kick-off 18:00 EAT. The match is played at Mobolaji Johnson Arena (Lagos Island). Ikorodu City are 9th in the table with 9 points from 7 games; Kwara United are 8th with 10.

Who will win Ikorodu City vs Kwara United?

The model makes Ikorodu City clear favourites at 63%, with the draw at 25% and Kwara United at 12%. Megapari's 1.41 on Ikorodu City is shorter than our fair price of 1.59: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.

Three markets clear our thresholds for this match: Ikorodu City to win (63%), Ikorodu City or draw (88%) and under 3.5 goals (78%).

Odds: Megapari, as of 9 October 2026, 17:04 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Ikorodu City vs Kwara United

The numbers point to a tight game: expected goals of 1.6 and 0.6, and under 2.5 goals at 58%. Kwara United may struggle to score at all: both teams to score is only 41%.

Ikorodu City vs Kwara United correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-0 at 18%, ahead of 2-0 (14%) and 0-0 (12%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 6 matches like this one.

Form: Ikorodu City and Kwara United in their last five

Ikorodu City have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -1. Kwara United have won 3 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +3. The results cover every competition in our data.

Ikorodu City: last five matches

Kwara United: last five matches

Ikorodu City vs Kwara United head to head

In their last two meetings in our data, Ikorodu City won 1, Kwara United won none and 1 was drawn. The most recent, on 18 January 2026, finished Ikorodu City 1–0 Kwara United.

The rest of the Nigeria Premier Football League is on our NPFL page, every match tomorrow is priced on Tomorrow and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.