Jagiellonia Białystok vs Ararat-Armenia prediction: UEFA Europa League, Thursday 15 October

Jagiellonia Białystok host Ararat-Armenia in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday 15 October, kick-off 22:00 EAT. The match is played at Miejski (Białystok). Jagiellonia Białystok are 21st in the table with 0 points from 1 games; Ararat-Armenia are 33rd with 0.

Who will win Jagiellonia Białystok vs Ararat-Armenia?

The model makes Jagiellonia Białystok clear favourites at 62%, with the draw at 22% and Ararat-Armenia at 17%. Megapari's 1.42 on Jagiellonia Białystok is shorter than our fair price of 1.62: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.

Two markets clear our thresholds for this match: Jagiellonia Białystok to win (62%) and Jagiellonia Białystok or draw (83%).

Odds: Megapari, as of 8 October 2026, 23:47 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Jagiellonia Białystok vs Ararat-Armenia

Expected goals are 1.8 for Jagiellonia Białystok and 1.0 for Ararat-Armenia, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 56%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 52%.

Jagiellonia Białystok vs Ararat-Armenia correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 11%, ahead of 1-0 (10%) and 2-1 (10%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 9 matches like this one.

Form: Jagiellonia Białystok and Ararat-Armenia in their last five

Jagiellonia Białystok have won 1 and lost 4 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -5. Ararat-Armenia have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -3. The results cover every competition in our data.

Jagiellonia Białystok: last five matches

Ararat-Armenia: last five matches

Jagiellonia Białystok vs Ararat-Armenia head to head

Jagiellonia Białystok and Ararat-Armenia have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.

The rest of the UEFA Europa League is on our Europa League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.