Ligue 1
Le Mans vs Toulouse prediction: Ligue 1, Friday 16 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Le Mans
Toulouse
- Le Mans
- 35%Megapari 3.25
- Draw
- 27%Megapari 3.57
- Toulouse
- 38%Megapari 2.34
No tip: no market clears our thresholds for this match.
xG 1.4–1.3 · likeliest 1-1 (13%)
Le Mans host Toulouse in Ligue 1 on Friday 16 October, kick-off 21:45 EAT. The match is played at Marie-Marvingt (Le Mans). Le Mans are 9th in the table with 6 points from 5 games; Toulouse are 13th with 5.
Who will win Le Mans vs Toulouse?
There is little to separate the sides: Le Mans 35%, the draw 27%, Toulouse 38%. Megapari's 2.34 on Toulouse is shorter than our fair price of 2.61: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
No market clears our thresholds for this match, so it carries no tip in the daily lists; the table below is the model's full view of it.
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | Megapari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Le Mans to win | 35% | 2.88 | 3.25 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.71 | 3.57 |
| Toulouse to win | 38% | 2.61 | 2.34 |
| Le Mans or draw | 62% | 1.62 | 1.67 |
| Draw or Toulouse | 65% | 1.53 | 1.39 |
| Le Mans or Toulouse | 73% | 1.37 | 1.34 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | 1.32 | 1.21 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 1.88 | 1.84 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47% | 2.13 | 2.12 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 70% | 1.43 | 1.37 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57% | 1.77 | 1.60 |
| Both teams to score: no | 43% | 2.30 | 2.22 |
Odds: Megapari, as of 9 October 2026, 23:46 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Le Mans vs Toulouse
Expected goals are 1.4 for Le Mans and 1.3 for Toulouse, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 53%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 57%.
Le Mans vs Toulouse correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-1 at 13%, ahead of 2-1 (9%) and 1-0 (9%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.5% | 7.99 |
| 2-1 | 8.6% | 11.61 |
| 1-0 | 8.6% | 11.70 |
| 1-2 | 8.0% | 12.48 |
| 0-1 | 7.9% | 12.63 |
Form: Le Mans and Toulouse in their last five
Le Mans have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +0. Toulouse have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -2. The results cover every competition in our data.
Le Mans: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Lorient (home)Ligue 1 | 2-1 | W |
| 13 Sep 2026 | Lens (home)Ligue 1 | 2-2 | D |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Nice (away)Ligue 1 | 1-1 | D |
| 30 Aug 2026 | Rennes (away)Ligue 1 | 2-3 | L |
| 22 Aug 2026 | Brest (home)Ligue 1 | 2-2 | D |
Toulouse: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Le Havre (home)Ligue 1 | 3-2 | W |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Lorient (away)Ligue 1 | 2-2 | D |
| 3 Sep 2026 | Lille (home)Ligue 1 | 0-1 | L |
| 29 Aug 2026 | Brest (away)Ligue 1 | 2-2 | D |
| 22 Aug 2026 | Lyon (home)Ligue 1 | 0-2 | L |
Le Mans vs Toulouse head to head
Le Mans and Toulouse have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.
The rest of Ligue 1 is on our Ligue 1 page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
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