UEFA Europa League
Lech Poznań vs Leverkusen prediction: UEFA Europa League, Thursday 15 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Lech Poznań host Leverkusen in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday 15 October, kick-off 19:45 EAT. The match is played at INEA stadion (Poznan). Lech Poznań are 35th in the table with 0 points from 1 games; Leverkusen are 8th with 3.
Who will win Lech Poznań vs Leverkusen?
Leverkusen are favourites, though not by much: 49% to win, 23% for the draw and 28% for Lech Poznań. Megapari's 1.68 on Leverkusen is shorter than our fair price of 2.05: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
Three markets clear our thresholds for this match: over 1.5 goals (81%), over 2.5 goals (61%) and both teams to score: yes (60%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | Megapari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lech Poznań to win | 28% | 3.52 | 4.71 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.38 | 4.46 |
| Leverkusen to win | 49% | 2.05 | 1.68 |
| Lech Poznań or draw | 51% | 1.95 | 2.26 |
| Draw or Leverkusen | 72% | 1.40 | 1.21 |
| Lech Poznań or Leverkusen | 77% | 1.30 | 1.23 |
| Over 1.5 goals Tip | 81% | 1.24 | 1.11 |
| Over 2.5 goals Tip | 61% | 1.64 | 1.46 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39% | 2.57 | 2.47 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 63% | 1.59 | 1.68 |
| Both teams to score: yes Tip | 60% | 1.66 | 1.52 |
| Both teams to score: no | 40% | 2.51 | 2.40 |
Odds: Megapari, as of 8 October 2026, 23:47 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Lech Poznań vs Leverkusen
Goals are expected: 1.6 for Lech Poznań and 1.7 for Leverkusen, 3.3 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 61%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 60%.
Lech Poznań vs Leverkusen correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-1 at 11%, ahead of 1-2 (9%) and 2-1 (8%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 9 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 10.5% | 9.48 |
| 1-2 | 8.5% | 11.75 |
| 2-1 | 8.1% | 12.36 |
| 2-2 | 6.8% | 14.75 |
| 0-1 | 6.0% | 16.78 |
Form: Lech Poznań and Leverkusen in their last five
Lech Poznań have won 3 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +1. Leverkusen have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +7. The results cover every competition in our data.
Lech Poznań: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | RKS Radomiak Radom (home)Ekstraklasa | 5-1 | W |
| 17 Sep 2026 | Crystal Palace (away)UEFA Europa League | 0-4 | L |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Gornik Zabrze (away)Ekstraklasa | 1-2 | L |
| 6 Sep 2026 | Raków Częstochowa (home)Ekstraklasa | 1-0 | W |
| 3 Sep 2026 | Jagiellonia Białystok (home)Ekstraklasa | 2-1 | W |
Leverkusen: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | RB Leipzig (home)Bundesliga | 2-0 | W |
| 16 Sep 2026 | Celje (home)UEFA Europa League | 2-0 | W |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Augsburg (away)Bundesliga | 2-2 | D |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Union Berlin (home)Bundesliga | 4-0 | W |
| 29 Aug 2026 | SV 07 Elversberg (away)Bundesliga | 2-3 | L |
Lech Poznań vs Leverkusen head to head
Lech Poznań and Leverkusen have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.
The rest of the UEFA Europa League is on our Europa League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
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