UEFA Conference League
Lugano vs Red Star Belgrade prediction: UEFA Conference League, Thursday 15 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Lugano
Red Star Belgrade
- Lugano
- 38%Megapari 2.88
- Draw
- 27%Megapari 3.67
- Red Star Belgrade
- 35%Megapari 2.40
No tip: no market clears our thresholds for this match.
xG 1.4–1.1 · likeliest 1-1 (13%)
Lugano host Red Star Belgrade in the UEFA Conference League on Thursday 15 October, kick-off 19:45 EAT. The match is played at AIL Arena (Lugano).
Who will win Lugano vs Red Star Belgrade?
There is little to separate the sides: Lugano 38%, the draw 27%, Red Star Belgrade 35%. Megapari pays 2.88 on Lugano, more than our fair price of 2.65.
No market clears our thresholds for this match, so it carries no tip in the daily lists; the table below is the model's full view of it.
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | Megapari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lugano to win | 38% | 2.65 | 2.88 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.72 | 3.67 |
| Red Star Belgrade to win | 35% | 2.82 | 2.40 |
| Lugano or draw | 65% | 1.55 | 1.60 |
| Draw or Red Star Belgrade | 62% | 1.60 | 1.44 |
| Lugano or Red Star Belgrade | 73% | 1.37 | 1.30 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | 1.36 | 1.16 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 1.91 | 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48% | 2.10 | 2.18 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 73% | 1.37 | 1.38 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56% | 1.78 | 1.55 |
| Both teams to score: no | 44% | 2.29 | 2.30 |
Odds: Megapari, as of 8 October 2026, 23:47 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Lugano vs Red Star Belgrade
Expected goals are 1.4 for Lugano and 1.1 for Red Star Belgrade, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 52%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 56%.
Lugano vs Red Star Belgrade correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-1 at 13%, ahead of 1-0 (10%) and 2-1 (9%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 13.1% | 7.63 |
| 1-0 | 10.5% | 9.55 |
| 2-1 | 8.8% | 11.42 |
| 0-1 | 8.6% | 11.67 |
| 0-0 | 8.4% | 11.90 |
Form: Lugano and Red Star Belgrade in their last five
Lugano are unbeaten in 5 (4 wins, 1 draw), with 14 goals scored and 4 conceded. Red Star Belgrade are unbeaten in 5 (4 wins, 1 draw), with 8 goals scored and 2 conceded. The results cover every competition in our data.
Lugano: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | Lausanne-Sport (away)Swiss Super League | 4-0 | W |
| 16 Sep 2026 | St. Gallen (home)Swiss Super League | 4-1 | W |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Young Boys (home)Swiss Super League | 2-2 | D |
| 6 Sep 2026 | Basel (away)Swiss Super League | 3-1 | W |
| 3 Sep 2026 | Servette (home)Swiss Super League | 1-0 | W |
Red Star Belgrade: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | Radnicki Nis (home)Serbian SuperLiga | 3-0 | W |
| 17 Sep 2026 | Zeleznicar Pancevo (away)Serbian SuperLiga | 2-1 | W |
| 13 Sep 2026 | IMT Novi Beograd (away)Serbian SuperLiga | 1-0 | W |
| 10 Sep 2026 | Radnik Surdulica (away)Serbian SuperLiga | 0-0 | D |
| 6 Sep 2026 | Partizan (home)Serbian SuperLiga | 2-1 | W |
Lugano vs Red Star Belgrade head to head
Lugano and Red Star Belgrade have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.
All the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
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