UEFA Europa League
Marseille vs Olympiacos prediction: UEFA Europa League, Thursday 15 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Marseille
Olympiacos
- Marseille
- 45%Megapari 2.14
- Draw
- 28%Megapari 3.71
- Olympiacos
- 27%Megapari 3.39
- Under 3.5 goals77% · fair 1.291.43Bet
xG 1.3–0.9 · likeliest 1-1 (13%)
Marseille host Olympiacos in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday 15 October, kick-off 22:00 EAT. The match is played at Velodrome (Marseille). Marseille are 32nd in the table with 0 points from 1 games; Olympiacos are 13th with 3.
Who will win Marseille vs Olympiacos?
Marseille are favourites, though not by much: 45% to win, 28% for the draw and 27% for Olympiacos. Megapari's 2.14 on Marseille is shorter than our fair price of 2.22: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
One market clears our thresholds for this match: under 3.5 goals (77%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | Megapari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marseille to win | 45% | 2.22 | 2.14 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.62 | 3.71 |
| Olympiacos to win | 27% | 3.67 | 3.39 |
| Marseille or draw | 73% | 1.37 | 1.35 |
| Draw or Olympiacos | 55% | 1.82 | 1.76 |
| Marseille or Olympiacos | 72% | 1.38 | 1.30 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70% | 1.44 | 1.17 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 1.98 | 1.71 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49% | 2.03 | 2.24 |
| Under 3.5 goals Tip | 77% | 1.29 | 1.43 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 55% | 1.82 | 1.55 |
| Both teams to score: no | 45% | 2.21 | 2.32 |
Odds: Megapari, as of 8 October 2026, 23:47 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Marseille vs Olympiacos
Expected goals are 1.3 for Marseille and 0.9 for Olympiacos, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 51%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 55%.
Marseille vs Olympiacos correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-1 at 13%, ahead of 1-0 (13%) and 0-0 (11%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 7 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 13.5% | 7.42 |
| 1-0 | 13.4% | 7.46 |
| 0-0 | 11.1% | 8.99 |
| 0-1 | 9.3% | 10.71 |
| 2-0 | 9.2% | 10.93 |
Form: Marseille and Olympiacos in their last five
Marseille have not won in 5 (0 draws, 5 defeats) and scored 4 in that run. Olympiacos have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +2. The results cover every competition in our data.
Marseille: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | PSG (home)Ligue 1 | 1-2 | L |
| 17 Sep 2026 | Beşiktaş (away)UEFA Europa League | 1-4 | L |
| 11 Sep 2026 | Rennes (away)Ligue 1 | 0-1 | L |
| 6 Sep 2026 | Paris (home)Ligue 1 | 2-3 | L |
| 30 Aug 2026 | Monaco (away)Ligue 1 | 0-2 | L |
Olympiacos: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | Levadiakos (away)Super League Greece | 1-0 | W |
| 16 Sep 2026 | Jagiellonia Białystok (home)UEFA Europa League | 2-1 | W |
| 12 Sep 2026 | OFI Crete (home)Super League Greece | 0-1 | L |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Volos NFC (away)Super League Greece | 1-1 | D |
| 30 Aug 2026 | Asteras Tripolis (away)Super League Greece | 1-0 | W |
Marseille vs Olympiacos head to head
Marseille and Olympiacos have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.
The rest of the UEFA Europa League is on our Europa League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
+100% bonus on your first deposit with promo code TIPSQUANT