Kenyan Premier League
Mathare United vs APS Bomet prediction: Kenyan Premier League, Saturday 10 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Mathare United host APS Bomet in the Kenyan Premier League on Saturday 10 October, kick-off 14:00 EAT. The match is played at Police Sacco Stadium (Nairobi).
Who will win Mathare United vs APS Bomet?
There is little to separate the sides: Mathare United 31%, the draw 32%, APS Bomet 37%. At 32% the draw is a real option, more likely than in most matches. Megapari's 2.50 on APS Bomet is shorter than our fair price of 2.69: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
Three markets clear our thresholds for this match: draw (32%), under 2.5 goals (63%) and under 3.5 goals (83%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | Megapari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mathare United to win | 31% | 3.27 | 2.69 |
| Draw Tip | 32% | 3.10 | 2.85 |
| APS Bomet to win | 37% | 2.69 | 2.50 |
| Mathare United or draw | 63% | 1.59 | 1.39 |
| Draw or APS Bomet | 69% | 1.44 | 1.34 |
| Mathare United or APS Bomet | 68% | 1.48 | 1.30 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 64% | 1.56 | 1.51 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37% | 2.71 | 2.49 |
| Under 2.5 goals Tip | 63% | 1.59 | 1.42 |
| Under 3.5 goals Tip | 83% | 1.20 | 1.11 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 45% | 2.23 | 2.09 |
| Both teams to score: no | 55% | 1.81 | 1.63 |
Odds: Megapari, as of 8 October 2026, 17:04 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Mathare United vs APS Bomet
The numbers point to a tight game: expected goals of 0.8 and 1.0, and under 2.5 goals at 63%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 45%.
Mathare United vs APS Bomet correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 0-0 at 16%, ahead of 0-1 (16%) and 1-1 (14%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 6 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | 16.3% | 6.13 |
| 0-1 | 15.6% | 6.41 |
| 1-1 | 13.8% | 7.23 |
| 1-0 | 12.5% | 8.02 |
| 0-2 | 8.2% | 12.12 |
Form: Mathare United and APS Bomet in their last five
Mathare United have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -1. APS Bomet are unbeaten in 5 (2 wins, 3 draws), with 5 goals scored and 2 conceded. The results cover every competition in our data.
Mathare United: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | Ulinzi Stars (away)Kenyan Premier League | 0-0 | D |
| 31 May 2026 | Bandari (home)Kenyan Premier League | 1-0 | W |
| 23 May 2026 | Ulinzi Stars (away)Kenyan Premier League | 1-2 | L |
| 16 May 2026 | Mara Sugar (away)Kenyan Premier League | 1-0 | W |
| 10 May 2026 | APS Bomet (home)Kenyan Premier League | 0-2 | L |
APS Bomet: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | Murang'a Seal (home)Kenyan Premier League | 0-0 | D |
| 4 Sep 2026 | Gor Mahia (home)Kenyan Premier League | 0-0 | D |
| 31 May 2026 | Tusker (away)Kenyan Premier League | 1-1 | D |
| 24 May 2026 | Leopards (home)Kenyan Premier League | 2-1 | W |
| 20 May 2026 | Bandari (away)Kenyan Premier League | 2-0 | W |
Mathare United vs APS Bomet head to head
In their last two meetings in our data, Mathare United won none, APS Bomet won 1 and 1 was drawn. The most recent, on 10 May 2026, finished Mathare United 0–2 APS Bomet.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 10 May 2026 | Mathare United – APS BometKenyan Premier League | 0-2 |
| 9 Nov 2025 | APS Bomet – Mathare UnitedKenyan Premier League | 1-1 |
The rest of the Kenyan Premier League is on our FKF Premier League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
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