Kenyan Premier League
Nairobi United vs KCB prediction: Kenyan Premier League, Friday 9 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Nairobi United
KCB
- Nairobi United
- 48%Megapari 1.85
- Draw
- 29%Megapari 3.02
- KCB
- 23%Megapari 4.22
- Under 3.5 goals77% · fair 1.301.11Bet
xG 1.4–0.9 · likeliest 1-0 (14%)
Nairobi United host KCB in the Kenyan Premier League on Friday 9 October, kick-off 16:00 EAT. The match is played at Police Sacco Stadium (Nairobi).
Who will win Nairobi United vs KCB?
Nairobi United are favourites, though not by much: 48% to win, 29% for the draw and 23% for KCB. Megapari's 1.85 on Nairobi United is shorter than our fair price of 2.09: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
One market clears our thresholds for this match: under 3.5 goals (77%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | Megapari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nairobi United to win | 48% | 2.09 | 1.85 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.42 | 3.02 |
| KCB to win | 23% | 4.36 | 4.22 |
| Nairobi United or draw | 77% | 1.30 | 1.14 |
| Draw or KCB | 52% | 1.92 | 1.74 |
| Nairobi United or KCB | 71% | 1.41 | 1.27 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70% | 1.43 | 1.44 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 2.42 | 2.44 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 59% | 1.70 | 1.47 |
| Under 3.5 goals Tip | 77% | 1.30 | 1.11 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 46% | 2.16 | 2.13 |
| Both teams to score: no | 54% | 1.87 | 1.61 |
Odds: Megapari, as of 8 October 2026, 12:06 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Nairobi United vs KCB
The numbers point to a tight game: expected goals of 1.4 and 0.9, and under 2.5 goals at 59%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 46%.
Nairobi United vs KCB correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-0 at 14%, ahead of 1-1 (13%) and 0-0 (11%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 7 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 13.5% | 7.39 |
| 1-1 | 13.3% | 7.53 |
| 0-0 | 10.8% | 9.26 |
| 2-0 | 9.6% | 10.44 |
| 0-1 | 8.8% | 11.30 |
Form: Nairobi United and KCB in their last five
Nairobi United have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -1. KCB have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +1. The results cover every competition in our data.
Nairobi United: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | Bandari (home)Kenyan Premier League | 0-0 | D |
| 31 May 2026 | Gor Mahia (away)Kenyan Premier League | 1-0 | W |
| 24 May 2026 | Kenya Police (home)Kenyan Premier League | 0-0 | D |
| 16 May 2026 | Posta Rangers (home)Kenyan Premier League | 2-2 | D |
| 10 May 2026 | Kariobangi Sharks (away)Kenyan Premier League | 0-2 | L |
KCB: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | Gor Mahia (away)Kenyan Premier League | 0-0 | D |
| 18 Sep 2026 | Mombasa United (home)Kenyan Premier League | 0-0 | D |
| 31 May 2026 | Shabana (away)Kenyan Premier League | 2-1 | W |
| 27 May 2026 | Sofapaka (away)Kenyan Premier League | 2-1 | W |
| 23 May 2026 | Posta Rangers (home)Kenyan Premier League | 0-1 | L |
Nairobi United vs KCB head to head
In their last two meetings in our data, Nairobi United won 1, KCB won none and 1 was drawn. The most recent, on 4 March 2026, finished Nairobi United 1–1 KCB.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 4 Mar 2026 | Nairobi United – KCBKenyan Premier League | 1-1 |
| 15 Jan 2026 | KCB – Nairobi UnitedKenyan Premier League | 0-2 |
The rest of the Kenyan Premier League is on our FKF Premier League page, every match tomorrow is priced on Tomorrow and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
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