UEFA Europa League
NEC vs Levski Sofia prediction: UEFA Europa League, Thursday 15 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
NEC
Levski Sofia
- NEC
- 42%Megapari 1.91
- Draw
- 26%Megapari 3.83
- Levski Sofia
- 32%Megapari 4.06
No tip: no market clears our thresholds for this match.
xG 1.3–1.4 · likeliest 1-1 (13%)
NEC host Levski Sofia in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday 15 October, kick-off 22:00 EAT. The match is played at Goffert (Nijmegen). NEC are 36th in the table with 0 points from 1 games; Levski Sofia are 27th with 0.
Who will win NEC vs Levski Sofia?
There is little to separate the sides: NEC 42%, the draw 26%, Levski Sofia 32%. Megapari's 1.91 on NEC is shorter than our fair price of 2.36: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
No market clears our thresholds for this match, so it carries no tip in the daily lists; the table below is the model's full view of it.
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | Megapari |
|---|---|---|---|
| NEC to win | 42% | 2.36 | 1.91 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.86 | 3.83 |
| Levski Sofia to win | 32% | 3.15 | 4.06 |
| NEC or draw | 68% | 1.46 | 1.27 |
| Draw or Levski Sofia | 58% | 1.73 | 1.95 |
| NEC or Levski Sofia | 74% | 1.35 | 1.29 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | 1.33 | 1.21 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 1.88 | 1.79 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47% | 2.13 | 2.12 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 70% | 1.42 | 1.38 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 55% | 1.81 | 1.66 |
| Both teams to score: no | 45% | 2.24 | 2.12 |
Odds: Megapari, as of 8 October 2026, 23:47 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in NEC vs Levski Sofia
Expected goals are 1.3 for NEC and 1.4 for Levski Sofia, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 53%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 55%.
NEC vs Levski Sofia correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-1 at 13%, ahead of 0-1 (9%) and 1-2 (9%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.6% | 7.94 |
| 0-1 | 8.8% | 11.36 |
| 1-2 | 8.6% | 11.56 |
| 1-0 | 8.0% | 12.50 |
| 2-1 | 7.9% | 12.66 |
Form: NEC and Levski Sofia in their last five
NEC have not won in 5 (2 draws, 3 defeats) and scored 4 in that run. Levski Sofia have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +3. The results cover every competition in our data.
NEC: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | Go Ahead Eagles (home)Eredivisie | 1-1 | D |
| 17 Sep 2026 | Juventus (away)UEFA Europa League | 0-5 | L |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Cambuur (away)Eredivisie | 0-3 | L |
| 8 Sep 2026 | SBV Excelsior (home)Eredivisie | 2-2 | D |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Feyenoord (home)Eredivisie | 1-3 | L |
Levski Sofia: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Sep 2026 | Red Bull Salzburg (home)UEFA Europa League | 0-1 | L |
| 13 Sep 2026 | Botev Vratsa (away)Bulgarian First League | 0-0 | D |
| 5 Sep 2026 | CSKA Sofia (home)Bulgarian First League | 1-0 | W |
| 2 Sep 2026 | Slavia Sofia (away)Bulgarian First League | 2-1 | W |
| 30 Aug 2026 | Botev Plovdiv (away)Bulgarian First League | 3-1 | W |
NEC vs Levski Sofia head to head
NEC and Levski Sofia have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.
The rest of the UEFA Europa League is on our Europa League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
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