UEFA Europa League
Red Bull Salzburg vs AC Milan prediction: UEFA Europa League, Thursday 15 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Red Bull Salzburg
AC Milan
- Red Bull Salzburg
- 32%Megapari 4.11
- Draw
- 25%Megapari 4.01
- AC Milan
- 43%Megapari 1.86
No tip: no market clears our thresholds for this match.
xG 1.5–1.3 · likeliest 1-1 (12%)
Red Bull Salzburg host AC Milan in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday 15 October, kick-off 19:45 EAT. The match is played at Red Bull Arena (Salzburg).
Who will win Red Bull Salzburg vs AC Milan?
There is little to separate the sides: Red Bull Salzburg 32%, the draw 25%, AC Milan 43%. Megapari's 1.86 on AC Milan is shorter than our fair price of 2.33: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
No market clears our thresholds for this match, so it carries no tip in the daily lists; the table below is the model's full view of it.
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | Megapari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Red Bull Salzburg to win | 32% | 3.13 | 4.11 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.97 | 4.01 |
| AC Milan to win | 43% | 2.33 | 1.86 |
| Red Bull Salzburg or draw | 57% | 1.75 | 2.01 |
| Draw or AC Milan | 68% | 1.47 | 1.26 |
| Red Bull Salzburg or AC Milan | 75% | 1.34 | 1.27 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | 1.32 | 1.16 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 1.80 | 1.67 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44% | 2.25 | 2.31 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 69% | 1.44 | 1.46 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57% | 1.75 | 1.57 |
| Both teams to score: no | 43% | 2.34 | 2.28 |
Odds: Megapari, as of 8 October 2026, 23:47 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Red Bull Salzburg vs AC Milan
Expected goals are 1.5 for Red Bull Salzburg and 1.3 for AC Milan, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 56%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 57%.
Red Bull Salzburg vs AC Milan correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-1 at 12%, ahead of 2-1 (9%) and 1-0 (9%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.4% | 8.06 |
| 2-1 | 8.8% | 11.42 |
| 1-0 | 8.6% | 11.68 |
| 1-2 | 7.9% | 12.72 |
| 0-1 | 7.6% | 13.11 |
Form: Red Bull Salzburg and AC Milan in their last five
Red Bull Salzburg are unbeaten in 5 (4 wins, 1 draw), with 9 goals scored and 3 conceded. AC Milan have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +3. The results cover every competition in our data.
Red Bull Salzburg: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Sep 2026 | Levski Sofia (away)UEFA Europa League | 1-0 | W |
| 27 Aug 2026 | Mjallby (home)UEFA Europa League | 3-0 | W |
| 20 Aug 2026 | Mjallby (away)UEFA Europa League | 1-0 | W |
| 13 Aug 2026 | Pafos (away)UEFA Europa League | 3-3 | D |
| 6 Aug 2026 | Pafos (home)UEFA Europa League | 1-0 | W |
AC Milan: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | US Lecce (home)Serie A | 3-0 | W |
| 16 Sep 2026 | Benfica (home)UEFA Europa League | 0-2 | L |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Lazio (away)Serie A | 2-2 | D |
| 6 Sep 2026 | Juventus (away)Serie A | 1-1 | D |
| 28 Aug 2026 | Venezia (home)Serie A | 2-0 | W |
Red Bull Salzburg vs AC Milan head to head
Red Bull Salzburg and AC Milan have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.
The rest of the UEFA Europa League is on our Europa League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
+100% bonus on your first deposit with promo code TIPSQUANT