UEFA Conference League
Riga vs Kairat prediction: UEFA Conference League, Thursday 15 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Riga
Kairat
- Riga
- 53%Megapari 1.95
- Draw
- 26%Megapari 3.55
- Kairat
- 20%Megapari 4.13
No tip: no market clears our thresholds for this match.
xG 1.6–0.8 · likeliest 1-0 (14%)
Riga host Kairat in the UEFA Conference League on Thursday 15 October, kick-off 19:45 EAT. The match is played at Skonto (Riga).
Who will win Riga vs Kairat?
Riga are favourites, though not by much: 53% to win, 26% for the draw and 20% for Kairat. Megapari pays 1.95 on Riga, more than our fair price of 1.88.
No market clears our thresholds for this match, so it carries no tip in the daily lists; the table below is the model's full view of it.
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | Megapari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Riga to win | 53% | 1.88 | 1.95 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.78 | 3.55 |
| Kairat to win | 20% | 4.89 | 4.13 |
| Riga or draw | 80% | 1.26 | 1.25 |
| Draw or Kairat | 47% | 2.13 | 1.89 |
| Riga or Kairat | 74% | 1.36 | 1.32 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71% | 1.40 | 1.28 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 2.12 | 2.03 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53% | 1.89 | 1.84 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 75% | 1.33 | 1.25 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 50% | 2.00 | 1.82 |
| Both teams to score: no | 50% | 2.00 | 1.88 |
Odds: Megapari, as of 8 October 2026, 23:47 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Riga vs Kairat
Expected goals are 1.6 for Riga and 0.8 for Kairat, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 47%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 50%.
Riga vs Kairat correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-0 at 14%, ahead of 1-1 (12%) and 2-0 (12%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 7 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 14.3% | 6.97 |
| 1-1 | 12.0% | 8.36 |
| 2-0 | 11.9% | 8.39 |
| 0-0 | 9.7% | 10.34 |
| 2-1 | 9.2% | 10.81 |
Form: Riga and Kairat in their last five
Riga are unbeaten in 5 (3 wins, 2 draws), with 9 goals scored and 4 conceded. Kairat have won 1 and lost 4 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -6. The results cover every competition in our data.
Riga: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Aug 2026 | KÍ (home)UEFA Conference League | 2-1 | W |
| 20 Aug 2026 | KÍ (away)UEFA Conference League | 0-0 | D |
| 13 Aug 2026 | Gyori ETO (away)UEFA Conference League | 1-1 | D |
| 6 Aug 2026 | Gyori ETO (home)UEFA Conference League | 1-0 | W |
| 28 Jul 2026 | Vardar (home)UEFA Conference League | 5-2 | W |
Kairat: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Aug 2026 | Anderlecht (away)UEFA Europa League | 0-3 | L |
| 20 Aug 2026 | Anderlecht (home)UEFA Europa League | 0-3 | L |
| 11 Aug 2026 | Levski Sofia (home)UEFA Champions League | 0-1 | L |
| 4 Aug 2026 | Levski Sofia (away)UEFA Champions League | 0-1 | L |
| 29 Jul 2026 | Omonia (home)UEFA Champions League | 2-0 | W |
Riga vs Kairat head to head
Riga and Kairat have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.
All the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
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