UEFA Europa League
Sparta Prague vs Lillestrom prediction: UEFA Europa League, Thursday 15 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Sparta Prague host Lillestrom in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday 15 October, kick-off 19:45 EAT. The match is played at epet ARENA (Prague). Sparta Prague are 3rd in the table with 3 points from 1 games; Lillestrom are 24th with 0.
Who will win Sparta Prague vs Lillestrom?
The model makes Sparta Prague clear favourites at 66%, with the draw at 21% and Lillestrom at 14%. Megapari's 1.37 on Sparta Prague is shorter than our fair price of 1.52: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
Two markets clear our thresholds for this match: Sparta Prague to win (66%) and Sparta Prague or draw (86%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | Megapari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sparta Prague to win Tip | 66% | 1.52 | 1.37 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.82 | 5.32 |
| Lillestrom to win | 14% | 7.34 | 8.80 |
| Sparta Prague or draw Tip | 86% | 1.16 | 1.07 |
| Draw or Lillestrom | 34% | 2.91 | 3.26 |
| Sparta Prague or Lillestrom | 79% | 1.26 | 1.18 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | 1.34 | 1.14 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 1.80 | 1.62 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44% | 2.25 | 2.42 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 71% | 1.41 | 1.51 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 51% | 1.97 | 1.84 |
| Both teams to score: no | 49% | 2.03 | 1.88 |
Odds: Megapari, as of 8 October 2026, 23:47 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Sparta Prague vs Lillestrom
Expected goals are 1.8 for Sparta Prague and 0.8 for Lillestrom, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 56%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 51%.
Sparta Prague vs Lillestrom correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-0 at 12%, ahead of 2-0 (12%) and 1-1 (11%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 12.3% | 8.14 |
| 2-0 | 11.6% | 8.60 |
| 1-1 | 11.1% | 9.05 |
| 2-1 | 9.7% | 10.27 |
| 0-0 | 7.4% | 13.59 |
Form: Sparta Prague and Lillestrom in their last five
Sparta Prague have won 3 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +4. Lillestrom have won 2 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -4. The results cover every competition in our data.
Sparta Prague: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | Sigma Olomouc (away)Czech First League | 3-0 | W |
| 16 Sep 2026 | Ararat-Armenia (away)UEFA Europa League | 4-1 | W |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Jablonec (home)Czech First League | 2-0 | W |
| 6 Sep 2026 | Hradec Kralove (away)Czech First League | 1-2 | L |
| 30 Aug 2026 | Slavia Prague (home)Czech First League | 0-3 | L |
Lillestrom: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | Viking (away)Eliteserien | 0-3 | L |
| 17 Sep 2026 | S.C.U. Torreense (home)UEFA Europa League | 1-2 | L |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Valerenga (home)Eliteserien | 2-0 | W |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Brann (away)Eliteserien | 2-1 | W |
| 30 Aug 2026 | Fredrikstad (home)Eliteserien | 1-4 | L |
Sparta Prague vs Lillestrom head to head
Sparta Prague and Lillestrom have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.
The rest of the UEFA Europa League is on our Europa League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
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