UEFA Europa League
TSG Hoffenheim vs Beşiktaş prediction: UEFA Europa League, Thursday 15 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
TSG Hoffenheim
Beşiktaş
- TSG Hoffenheim
- 45%Megapari 1.97
- Draw
- 25%Megapari 4.11
- Beşiktaş
- 30%Megapari 3.58
- Both teams to score: yes61% · fair 1.641.42Bet
xG 1.5–1.4 · likeliest 1-1 (12%)
TSG Hoffenheim host Beşiktaş in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday 15 October, kick-off 22:00 EAT. The match is played at PreZero Arena (Sinsheim). TSG Hoffenheim are 29th in the table with 0 points from 1 games; Beşiktaş are 4th with 3.
Who will win TSG Hoffenheim vs Beşiktaş?
There is little to separate the sides: TSG Hoffenheim 45%, the draw 25%, Beşiktaş 30%. Megapari's 1.97 on TSG Hoffenheim is shorter than our fair price of 2.22: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
One market clears our thresholds for this match: both teams to score: yes (61%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | Megapari |
|---|---|---|---|
| TSG Hoffenheim to win | 45% | 2.22 | 1.97 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.07 | 4.11 |
| Beşiktaş to win | 30% | 3.28 | 3.58 |
| TSG Hoffenheim or draw | 70% | 1.44 | 1.32 |
| Draw or Beşiktaş | 55% | 1.82 | 1.90 |
| TSG Hoffenheim or Beşiktaş | 75% | 1.33 | 1.26 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | 1.29 | 1.09 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 1.67 | 1.42 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40% | 2.48 | 2.59 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 68% | 1.48 | 1.73 |
| Both teams to score: yes Tip | 61% | 1.64 | 1.42 |
| Both teams to score: no | 39% | 2.56 | 2.69 |
Odds: Megapari, as of 8 October 2026, 23:47 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in TSG Hoffenheim vs Beşiktaş
Goals are expected: 1.5 for TSG Hoffenheim and 1.4 for Beşiktaş, 2.9 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 60%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 61%.
TSG Hoffenheim vs Beşiktaş correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-1 at 12%, ahead of 2-1 (9%) and 1-2 (8%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.9% | 8.40 |
| 2-1 | 8.8% | 11.35 |
| 1-2 | 7.9% | 12.59 |
| 1-0 | 7.8% | 12.82 |
| 0-1 | 7.0% | 14.33 |
Form: TSG Hoffenheim and Beşiktaş in their last five
TSG Hoffenheim have won 1 and lost 4 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -5. Beşiktaş have won 4 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +10. The results cover every competition in our data.
TSG Hoffenheim: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | Paderborn 07 (away)Bundesliga | 1-3 | L |
| 17 Sep 2026 | OFI Crete (away)UEFA Europa League | 0-2 | L |
| 12 Sep 2026 | VfB Stuttgart (home)Bundesliga | 2-1 | W |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Borussia Dortmund (home)Bundesliga | 2-3 | L |
| 29 Aug 2026 | Köln (away)Bundesliga | 2-3 | L |
Beşiktaş: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | Amedspor (away)Süper Lig | 2-3 | L |
| 17 Sep 2026 | Marseille (home)UEFA Europa League | 4-1 | W |
| 11 Sep 2026 | BB Erzurumspor (home)Süper Lig | 3-0 | W |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Fenerbahçe (away)Süper Lig | 2-1 | W |
| 31 Aug 2026 | Arca Corum (home)Süper Lig | 6-2 | W |
TSG Hoffenheim vs Beşiktaş head to head
TSG Hoffenheim and Beşiktaş have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.
The rest of the UEFA Europa League is on our Europa League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
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