UEFA Conference League
Twente vs Thun prediction: UEFA Conference League, Thursday 15 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Twente host Thun in the UEFA Conference League on Thursday 15 October, kick-off 22:00 EAT. The match is played at De Grolsch Veste (Enschede).
Who will win Twente vs Thun?
The model makes Twente clear favourites at 77%, with the draw at 13% and Thun at 9%. Megapari's 1.21 on Twente is shorter than our fair price of 1.29: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
Four markets clear our thresholds for this match: Twente to win (77%), Twente or draw (91%), over 1.5 goals (86%) and over 2.5 goals (69%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | Megapari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Twente to win Tip | 77% | 1.29 | 1.21 |
| Draw | 13% | 7.41 | 7.65 |
| Thun to win | 9% | 10.99 | 12.50 |
| Twente or draw Tip | 91% | 1.10 | 1.03 |
| Draw or Thun | 23% | 4.43 | 4.64 |
| Twente or Thun | 87% | 1.16 | 1.10 |
| Over 1.5 goals Tip | 86% | 1.16 | 1.06 |
| Over 2.5 goals Tip | 69% | 1.45 | 1.30 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 31% | 3.20 | 2.97 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 53% | 1.88 | 1.95 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 55% | 1.80 | 1.74 |
| Both teams to score: no | 45% | 2.25 | 1.98 |
Odds: Megapari, as of 8 October 2026, 23:47 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Twente vs Thun
Goals are expected: 2.9 for Twente and 1.1 for Thun, 4.0 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 69%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 55%.
Twente vs Thun correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 2-1 at 8%, ahead of 3-1 (8%) and 2-0 (8%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 12 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | 8.4% | 11.92 |
| 3-1 | 8.2% | 12.17 |
| 2-0 | 7.8% | 12.74 |
| 3-0 | 7.7% | 13.00 |
| 4-1 | 6.0% | 16.56 |
Form: Twente and Thun in their last five
Twente are unbeaten in 5 (4 wins, 1 draw), with 12 goals scored and 5 conceded. Thun have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -3. The results cover every competition in our data.
Twente: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | PSV Eindhoven (home)Eredivisie | 3-2 | W |
| 12 Sep 2026 | ADO Den Haag (home)Eredivisie | 2-0 | W |
| 9 Sep 2026 | Telstar (home)Eredivisie | 1-0 | W |
| 6 Sep 2026 | Groningen (away)Eredivisie | 2-2 | D |
| 30 Aug 2026 | Cambuur (away)Eredivisie | 4-1 | W |
Thun: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | Vaduz (away)Swiss Super League | 2-1 | W |
| 16 Sep 2026 | Servette (home)Swiss Super League | 2-4 | L |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Grasshopper Club Zurich (home)Swiss Super League | 0-1 | L |
| 6 Sep 2026 | Sion (away)Swiss Super League | 2-3 | L |
| 2 Sep 2026 | Lausanne-Sport (home)Swiss Super League | 0-0 | D |
Twente vs Thun head to head
Twente and Thun have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.
All the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
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