Ulinzi Stars vs Tusker prediction: Kenyan Premier League, Sunday 11 October

Ulinzi Stars host Tusker in the Kenyan Premier League on Sunday 11 October, kick-off 14:00 EAT. The match is played at Ulinzi Sports Complex (Nairobi).

Who will win Ulinzi Stars vs Tusker?

There is little to separate the sides: Ulinzi Stars 28%, the draw 33%, Tusker 39%. At 33% the draw is a real option, more likely than in most matches. Megapari's 1.86 on Tusker is shorter than our fair price of 2.57: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.

Three markets clear our thresholds for this match: draw (33%), under 2.5 goals (66%) and under 3.5 goals (86%).

Odds: Megapari, as of 8 October 2026, 23:47 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Ulinzi Stars vs Tusker

The numbers point to a tight game: expected goals of 0.9 and 0.8, and under 2.5 goals at 66%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 43%.

Ulinzi Stars vs Tusker correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 0-0 at 20%, ahead of 1-0 (17%) and 0-1 (14%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 5 matches like this one.

Form: Ulinzi Stars and Tusker in their last five

Ulinzi Stars are unbeaten in 5 (2 wins, 3 draws), with 3 goals scored and 0 conceded. Tusker have not won in 5 (3 draws, 2 defeats) and scored 1 in that run. The results cover every competition in our data.

Ulinzi Stars: last five matches

Tusker: last five matches

Ulinzi Stars vs Tusker head to head

In their last six meetings in our data, Ulinzi Stars won 2, Tusker won 3 and 1 was drawn. The most recent, on 27 May 2026, finished Ulinzi Stars 2–0 Tusker.

The rest of the Kenyan Premier League is on our FKF Premier League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.