UEFA Europa League
Union Saint-Gilloise vs Real Sociedad prediction: UEFA Europa League, Thursday 15 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Union Saint-Gilloise host Real Sociedad in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday 15 October, kick-off 19:45 EAT. The match is played at Den Dreef (Leuven). Union Saint-Gilloise are 5th in the table with 3 points from 1 games; Real Sociedad are 22nd with 0.
Who will win Union Saint-Gilloise vs Real Sociedad?
Union Saint-Gilloise are favourites, though not by much: 56% to win, 22% for the draw and 22% for Real Sociedad. Megapari pays 2.37 on Union Saint-Gilloise, more than our fair price of 1.78.
Two markets clear our thresholds for this match: Union Saint-Gilloise to win (56%) and over 1.5 goals (80%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | Megapari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Union Saint-Gilloise to win Tip | 56% | 1.78 | 2.37 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.53 | 3.63 |
| Real Sociedad to win | 22% | 4.62 | 2.99 |
| Union Saint-Gilloise or draw | 78% | 1.28 | 1.42 |
| Draw or Real Sociedad | 44% | 2.29 | 1.63 |
| Union Saint-Gilloise or Real Sociedad | 78% | 1.28 | 1.31 |
| Over 1.5 goals Tip | 80% | 1.25 | 1.18 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 1.75 | 1.76 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43% | 2.33 | 2.16 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 63% | 1.58 | 1.39 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56% | 1.78 | 1.56 |
| Both teams to score: no | 44% | 2.28 | 2.30 |
Odds: Megapari, as of 8 October 2026, 23:47 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Union Saint-Gilloise vs Real Sociedad
Expected goals are 2.4 for Union Saint-Gilloise and 0.8 for Real Sociedad, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 57%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 56%.
Union Saint-Gilloise vs Real Sociedad correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 2-0 at 11%, ahead of 2-1 (9%) and 1-0 (9%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 9 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2-0 | 11.4% | 8.76 |
| 2-1 | 9.5% | 10.56 |
| 1-0 | 9.2% | 10.85 |
| 3-0 | 9.1% | 10.99 |
| 1-1 | 8.2% | 12.15 |
Form: Union Saint-Gilloise and Real Sociedad in their last five
Union Saint-Gilloise have won all of their last 5, scoring 16 and conceding 2. Real Sociedad have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -2. The results cover every competition in our data.
Union Saint-Gilloise: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | Antwerp (away)Belgian Pro League | 2-0 | W |
| 17 Sep 2026 | Viktoria Plzeň (away)UEFA Europa League | 3-0 | W |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Lommel SK (home)Belgian Pro League | 5-0 | W |
| 5 Sep 2026 | R. Charleroi (away)Belgian Pro League | 3-2 | W |
| 2 Sep 2026 | Sint-Truidense (away)Belgian Pro League | 3-0 | W |
Real Sociedad: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | Valencia (away)LaLiga | 3-2 | W |
| 17 Sep 2026 | Bournemouth (home)UEFA Europa League | 1-2 | L |
| 13 Sep 2026 | Atlético Madrid (home)LaLiga | 0-3 | L |
| 7 Sep 2026 | Elche (away)LaLiga | 3-2 | W |
| 3 Sep 2026 | Celta Vigo (home)LaLiga | 0-0 | D |
Union Saint-Gilloise vs Real Sociedad head to head
Union Saint-Gilloise and Real Sociedad have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.
The rest of the UEFA Europa League is on our Europa League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
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