Goal range meaning: what 0-1, 1-2, 2-3 and 4-6 need to win, and how to work out their chance

Goal range is a total goals market found in many betting apps used in Kenya, Nigeria, Ghana, Uganda, Tanzania and Zambia, sometimes listed as total goals range or multigoals. Instead of betting over or under a single line, you choose a band, say 2-3, and the bet wins if the match ends with a number of goals inside it, both ends included. Who scores, who wins and when the goals come make no difference. This page goes through the common ranges, shows how each one is built from the over/under lines explained on our over 1.5 meaning page, and shows how to estimate a range's chance from the numbers on our match pages. The examples use fixed scores rather than real matches, and betting is for adults aged 18+ only.

How a goal range bet settles

Add the goals of both teams at the final whistle of normal time, stoppage time included. If that total is one of the numbers in your band, you win; if not, you lose. Own goals count like any other goal. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are normally left out, as they are for every goals market, but the market rules in your app decide that and also what happens if a match is abandoned.

Both ends of the band count. Range 2-3 wins on a total of two and on a total of three, so 1-1 and 2-1 are winners, while 1-0 and 2-2 are losers. There is no refund point the way there is on an Asian goals line: every possible total is either inside the band or outside it.

The common ranges, one by one

Goal range 0-1

Winning scores: 0-0, 1-0 and 0-1. Anything with two goals loses, including 1-1. This is exactly the same outcome as under 1.5, so the only question is which of the two markets pays more for it in your app. It suits a match between two sides that score little, in a competition where low totals are normal, and it dies the moment the second goal goes in, however late.

Goal range 1-2

Winning scores: 1-0, 0-1, 2-0, 0-2 and 1-1. It loses on 0-0 and on any total of three or more. Think of it as under 2.5 with the goalless draw removed. Giving up 0-0 should earn a slightly longer price than under 2.5, and how much longer is worth checking, because in a tight, low-scoring match the goalless draw is often one of the likeliest scores.

Goal range 2-3

Winning scores: 1-1, 2-0, 0-2, 2-1, 1-2, 3-0 and 0-3. It loses on 0-0, 1-0 and 0-1 at one end and on four goals or more at the other. In a match expected to produce somewhere between two and three goals, this band holds the two likeliest totals, which is why it is the range most bettors start with. It is also the same bet as over 1.5 and under 3.5 together: both conditions must hold at once.

Goal range 4-6

Winning scores include 2-2, 3-1, 4-0, 3-2, 4-1, 5-0, 3-3, 4-2 and 5-1. It loses on three goals or fewer and on seven or more. Seven-goal matches are rare, so in practice 4-6 sits just below over 3.5 in probability and pays a touch more. It needs an open game: two attacks that score freely, a defence that leaks, or both.

Seven goals or more, and the other bands

A band of 7+ is a long shot that pays like one. Apps also offer other bands such as 0-2, 1-3, 2-4, 3-4 or 3-5, and they all follow the same logic. A range from a to b is simply "over a minus a half" and "under b plus a half" at the same time. Range 1-3 is over 0.5 and under 3.5; range 3-4 is over 2.5 and under 4.5.

The rule that turns a range into over/under numbers

Once you see a range as the gap between two lines, its probability is a subtraction. The chance of a band from a to b is the chance of over (a − 0.5) minus the chance of over (b + 0.5). The table below writes that out for the ranges people ask about most.

Range	Wins on a total of	Same as	Chance from over/under numbers
0-1	0 or 1	under 1.5	100% minus over 1.5
0-2	0, 1 or 2	under 2.5	under 2.5
0-3	0 to 3	under 3.5	under 3.5
1-2	1 or 2	under 2.5 without 0-0	under 2.5 minus the chance of 0-0
2-3	2 or 3	over 1.5 and under 3.5	over 1.5 plus under 3.5, minus 100%
4-6	4, 5 or 6	over 3.5 without 7+	a little below 100% minus under 3.5

Working out a range's chance on this site

Every match prediction page lists the probability of over 1.5, over and under 2.5 and under 3.5 goals for that fixture, along with the likeliest correct scores. That is enough to price the common ranges yourself.

Take an example match where the page shows over 1.5 at 74% and under 3.5 at 72%. Range 2-3 is 74 + 72 − 100 = 46%, so its fair odds are 1 ÷ 0.46, about 2.17. Range 0-1 is 100 − 74 = 26%, fair odds about 3.85. Four goals or more is 100 − 72 = 28%, and range 4-6 is slightly less than that. The three figures add up to 100, as they should, because between them they cover every possible total. If your app pays 2.40 on 2-3 for that match, the price is longer than the model's fair odds; at 1.90 it is shorter, and you would be paying more than the model thinks the bet is worth.

The over 1.5 and under 3.5 figures are the model's own calibrated numbers, so ranges built from them are consistent with each other. Range 1-2 needs the under 2.5 figure, which is blended with the bookmaker's odds where they are available, and the 0-0 chance from the correct score prediction table, which is the model's own; the result is a close estimate rather than an exact one. The methodology page explains the calibration and the blend in full.

For a wider view of the day, the mathematical prediction table gives every match's expected goals and over 2.5 chance in one list, which is a quick way to find the matches where a low or a high band is worth a closer look.

Why a range pays more than the matching over or under

A range closes two doors. Over 1.5 wins on two, three, four goals and beyond; range 2-3 wins only on two or three and gives up everything from four upwards. In exchange it pays more. Whether that trade is worth making depends on how much of the over 1.5 probability sits in the four-plus totals, and the subtraction above puts a number on it.

The same arithmetic warns against a common mistake. Two strong goals tips on one match do not add up to a strong range. If a match carries an over 1.5 tip at 80% and an under 3.5 tip at 78%, the 2-3 band on it is 80 + 78 − 100 = 58%. Two numbers that each look close to a banker combine into little more than a coin flip with a lean. The tips themselves are on the over 1.5 prediction page, and the under 3.5 tips appear in the daily lists.

Goal range is not exact goals, and not team goals

Exact goals, sometimes called total goals, asks for one number: exactly two, exactly three. A range covers several totals and pays less than any single one of them would. Team goal ranges, where offered, count the goals of one side only, such as the home team scoring one or two; our tables give each team's expected goals but do not print a probability for team bands. First-half goal ranges use the same idea for the first 45 minutes, and our models do not price them.

Using goal ranges sensibly

Start from the match, not from the band. Low expected goals point towards 0-1 or 1-2, an ordinary match towards 2-3, and only a genuinely open one towards 4-6. Compare the app's price with the fair odds you have worked out, and leave the bet alone when the price is shorter. Be careful about stacking ranges in an accumulator: a typical range is a coin flip or worse, and three bands at 46% each land together only about one time in ten. Any bet can lose, however neatly the numbers line up. Decide your stake before you open the app, keep it to money you can spare, and remember the site is for adults aged 18+ only.