Scottish Premiership
Aberdeen vs St. Mirren prediction: Scottish Premiership, Saturday 17 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Aberdeen
St. Mirren
- Aberdeen
- 47%Megapari 1.81
- Draw
- 28%Megapari 3.64
- St. Mirren
- 25%Megapari 4.13
- Under 3.5 goals79% · fair 1.27Bet 1.34
xG 1.2–0.9 · likeliest 1-0 (14%)
Aberdeen host St. Mirren in the Scottish Premiership on Saturday 17 October, kick-off 17:00 EAT. The match is played at Pittodrie (Aberdeen). Aberdeen are 7th in the table with 8 points from 7 games; St. Mirren are 5th with 10.
Who will win Aberdeen vs St. Mirren?
Aberdeen are favourites, though not by much: 47% to win, 28% for the draw and 25% for St. Mirren. Megapari's 1.81 on Aberdeen is shorter than our fair price of 2.12: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
One market clears our thresholds for this match: under 3.5 goals (79%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | Megapari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aberdeen to win | 47% | 2.12 | 1.81 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.57 | 3.64 |
| St. Mirren to win | 25% | 4.02 | 4.13 |
| Aberdeen or draw | 75% | 1.33 | 1.20 |
| Draw or St. Mirren | 53% | 1.89 | 1.94 |
| Aberdeen or St. Mirren | 72% | 1.39 | 1.26 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68% | 1.47 | 1.20 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 2.10 | 1.77 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52% | 1.91 | 1.98 |
| Under 3.5 goals Tip | 79% | 1.27 | 1.34 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 52% | 1.93 | 1.68 |
| Both teams to score: no | 48% | 2.08 | 2.06 |
Odds: Megapari, as of 10 October 2026, 17:08 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Aberdeen vs St. Mirren
Expected goals are 1.2 for Aberdeen and 0.9 for St. Mirren, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 48%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 52%.
Aberdeen vs St. Mirren correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-0 at 14%, ahead of 1-1 (14%) and 0-0 (13%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 7 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 14.0% | 7.14 |
| 1-1 | 13.7% | 7.28 |
| 0-0 | 12.5% | 7.99 |
| 0-1 | 10.4% | 9.65 |
| 2-0 | 8.8% | 11.34 |
Form: Aberdeen and St. Mirren in their last five
Aberdeen have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +0. St. Mirren have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -4. The results cover every competition in our data.
Aberdeen: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Hibernian (away)Scottish Premiership | 1-1 | D |
| 15 Sep 2026 | Motherwell (away)Scottish Premiership | 4-0 | W |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Kilmarnock (home)Scottish Premiership | 0-0 | D |
| 2 Sep 2026 | Celtic (away)Scottish Premiership | 0-3 | L |
| 30 Aug 2026 | Rangers (home)Scottish Premiership | 0-1 | L |
St. Mirren: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Dundee United (home)Scottish Premiership | 0-3 | L |
| 9 Sep 2026 | Rangers (away)Scottish Premiership | 0-1 | L |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Celtic (home)Scottish Premiership | 1-2 | L |
| 2 Sep 2026 | Kilmarnock (away)Scottish Premiership | 1-0 | W |
| 30 Aug 2026 | Motherwell (home)Scottish Premiership | 3-3 | D |
Aberdeen vs St. Mirren head to head
In their last six meetings in our data, Aberdeen won 1, St. Mirren won 4 and 1 was drawn. The most recent, on 12 May 2026, finished Aberdeen 0–2 St. Mirren.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 12 May 2026 | Aberdeen – St. MirrenScottish Premiership | 0-2 |
| 4 Apr 2026 | St. Mirren – AberdeenScottish Premiership | 2-0 |
| 3 Dec 2025 | Aberdeen – St. MirrenScottish Premiership | 3-3 |
| 18 Oct 2025 | St. Mirren – AberdeenScottish Premiership | 0-1 |
| 3 May 2025 | St. Mirren – AberdeenScottish Premiership | 1-0 |
| 25 Jan 2025 | Aberdeen – St. MirrenScottish Premiership | 0-3 |
All the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
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