AC Milan vs Atalanta prediction: Serie A, Sunday 18 October

AC Milan host Atalanta in Serie A on Sunday 18 October, kick-off 19:00 EAT. The match is played at Giuseppe Meazza (Milan). AC Milan are 5th in the table with 12 points from 6 games; Atalanta are 11th with 6.

Who will win AC Milan vs Atalanta?

There is little to separate the sides: AC Milan 44%, the draw 27%, Atalanta 29%. Megapari's 1.93 on AC Milan is shorter than our fair price of 2.27: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.

No market clears our thresholds for this match, so it carries no tip in the daily lists; the table below is the model's full view of it.

Odds: Megapari, as of 11 October 2026, 23:47 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in AC Milan vs Atalanta

Expected goals are 1.2 for AC Milan and 1.2 for Atalanta, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 50%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 54%.

AC Milan vs Atalanta correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 14%, ahead of 1-0 (11%) and 0-1 (10%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 7 matches like this one.

Form: AC Milan and Atalanta in their last five

AC Milan have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +1. Atalanta have won 2 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -2. The results cover every competition in our data.

AC Milan: last five matches

Atalanta: last five matches

AC Milan vs Atalanta head to head

In their last six meetings in our data, AC Milan won none, Atalanta won 4 and 2 were drawn. The most recent, on 10 May 2026, finished AC Milan 2–3 Atalanta.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on AC Milan has shortened from 1.95 to 1.93 since the line opened: the market has moved towards them. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.89 to 1.83, so the market now expects more goals than at the open.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

The rest of Serie A is on our Serie A page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.