AJ Auxerre vs Le Mans prediction: Ligue 1, Sunday 25 October

AJ Auxerre host Le Mans in Ligue 1 on Sunday 25 October, kick-off 19:15 EAT. The match is played at Stade de l'Abbe-Deschamps (Auxerre). AJ Auxerre are 12th in the table with 9 points from 7 games; Le Mans are 16th with 6.

Who will win AJ Auxerre vs Le Mans?

There is little to separate the sides: AJ Auxerre 44%, the draw 27%, Le Mans 29%. Megapari's 2.23 on AJ Auxerre sits right on our fair price of 2.26.

No market clears our thresholds for this match, so it carries no tip in the daily lists; the table below is the model's full view of it.

Odds: Megapari, as of 18 October 2026, 23:45 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in AJ Auxerre vs Le Mans

Expected goals are 1.5 for AJ Auxerre and 1.2 for Le Mans, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 53%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 56%.

AJ Auxerre vs Le Mans correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 13%, ahead of 1-0 (10%) and 2-1 (9%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.

Form: AJ Auxerre and Le Mans in their last five

AJ Auxerre have won 3 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -1. Le Mans have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -4. The results cover every competition in our data.

AJ Auxerre: last five matches

Le Mans: last five matches

AJ Auxerre vs Le Mans head to head

AJ Auxerre and Le Mans have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on AJ Auxerre has shortened from 2.33 to 2.23 since the line opened: the market has moved towards them. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.88 to 1.78, so the market now expects more goals than at the open.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

The rest of Ligue 1 is on our Ligue 1 page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.