UEFA Conference League
Ajax vs Atalanta prediction: UEFA Conference League, Thursday 22 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Ajax host Atalanta in the UEFA Conference League on Thursday 22 October, kick-off 22:00 EAT. The match is played at Johan Cruyff Arena (Amsterdam). Ajax are 25th in the table with 0 points from 1 games; Atalanta are 4th with 3.
Who will win Ajax vs Atalanta?
There is little to separate the sides: Ajax 41%, the draw 25%, Atalanta 34%. Megapari pays 2.54 on Ajax, more than our fair price of 2.45.
Two markets clear our thresholds for this match: over 1.5 goals (80%) and both teams to score: yes (58%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | Megapari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ajax to win | 41% | 2.45 | 2.54 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.96 | 3.65 |
| Atalanta to win | 34% | 2.95 | 2.71 |
| Ajax or draw | 66% | 1.51 | 1.49 |
| Draw or Atalanta | 59% | 1.69 | 1.54 |
| Ajax or Atalanta | 75% | 1.34 | 1.30 |
| Over 1.5 goals Tip | 80% | 1.25 | 1.18 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 1.78 | 1.78 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44% | 2.29 | 2.10 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 64% | 1.56 | 1.35 |
| Both teams to score: yes Tip | 58% | 1.71 | 1.58 |
| Both teams to score: no | 42% | 2.41 | 2.23 |
Odds: Megapari, as of 16 October 2026, 12:04 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Ajax vs Atalanta
Expected goals are 1.7 for Ajax and 1.5 for Atalanta, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 56%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 58%.
Ajax vs Atalanta correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-1 at 11%, ahead of 2-1 (9%) and 1-2 (8%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 9 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 10.8% | 9.24 |
| 2-1 | 9.0% | 11.11 |
| 1-2 | 7.6% | 13.19 |
| 1-0 | 6.7% | 14.88 |
| 2-2 | 6.6% | 15.24 |
Form: Ajax and Atalanta in their last five
Ajax have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +7. Atalanta have won 2 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +0. The results cover every competition in our data.
Ajax: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Oct 2026 | Hajduk Split (away)UEFA Conference League | 1-2 | L |
| 10 Oct 2026 | NEC (home)Eredivisie | 1-1 | D |
| 19 Sep 2026 | SBV Excelsior (home)Eredivisie | 2-2 | D |
| 15 Sep 2026 | Willem II (home)Eredivisie | 5-1 | W |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Fortuna Sittard (away)Eredivisie | 5-1 | W |
Atalanta: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Oct 2026 | Pafos (home)UEFA Conference League | 3-1 | W |
| 12 Oct 2026 | Venezia (home)Serie A | 3-1 | W |
| 20 Sep 2026 | Juventus (away)Serie A | 0-2 | L |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Cagliari (home)Serie A | 1-2 | L |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Roma (away)Serie A | 1-2 | L |
Ajax vs Atalanta head to head
Ajax and Atalanta have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.
All the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
+100% bonus on your first deposit with promo code TIPSQUANT