Süper Lig
Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor prediction: Süper Lig, Friday 23 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Alanyaspor
Kocaelispor
- Alanyaspor
- 44%Megapari 2.07
- Draw
- 32%Megapari 3.29
- Kocaelispor
- 24%Megapari 4.12
- Under 2.5 goals65% · fair 1.53
- Under 3.5 goals85% · fair 1.17
xG 1.0–0.7 · likeliest 0-0 (19%)
Alanyaspor host Kocaelispor in the Süper Lig on Friday 23 October, kick-off 20:00 EAT. The match is played at Alanya Oba (Alanya). Alanyaspor are 7th in the table with 12 points from 7 games; Kocaelispor are 8th with 12.
Who will win Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor?
There is little to separate the sides: Alanyaspor 44%, the draw 32%, Kocaelispor 24%. At 32% the draw is a real option, more likely than in most matches. Megapari's 2.07 on Alanyaspor is shorter than our fair price of 2.27: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
Two markets clear our thresholds for this match: under 2.5 goals (65%) and under 3.5 goals (85%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | Megapari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alanyaspor to win | 44% | 2.27 | 2.07 |
| Draw | 32% | 3.12 | 3.29 |
| Kocaelispor to win | 24% | 4.19 | 4.12 |
| Alanyaspor or draw | 76% | 1.31 | – |
| Draw or Kocaelispor | 56% | 1.79 | – |
| Alanyaspor or Kocaelispor | 68% | 1.47 | – |
| Over 1.5 goals | 61% | 1.63 | – |
| Over 2.5 goals | 35% | 2.90 | – |
| Under 2.5 goals Tip | 65% | 1.53 | – |
| Under 3.5 goals Tip | 85% | 1.17 | – |
| Both teams to score: yes | 43% | 2.30 | – |
| Both teams to score: no | 57% | 1.77 | – |
Odds: Megapari, as of 16 October 2026, 23:48 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor
The numbers point to a tight game: expected goals of 1.0 and 0.7, and under 2.5 goals at 65%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 43%.
Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 0-0 at 19%, ahead of 1-0 (18%) and 1-1 (13%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 5 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | 19.0% | 5.27 |
| 1-0 | 17.9% | 5.59 |
| 1-1 | 13.3% | 7.54 |
| 0-1 | 12.3% | 8.14 |
| 2-0 | 9.2% | 10.92 |
Form: Alanyaspor and Kocaelispor in their last five
Alanyaspor have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +1. Kocaelispor have won 3 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +2. The results cover every competition in our data.
Alanyaspor: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct 2026 | BB Erzurumspor (home)Süper Lig | 0-0 | D |
| 19 Sep 2026 | Arca Corum (away)Süper Lig | 2-1 | W |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Goztepe (home)Süper Lig | 2-2 | D |
| 7 Sep 2026 | Caykur Rizespor (away)Süper Lig | 1-0 | W |
| 30 Aug 2026 | Eyupspor (away)Süper Lig | 1-2 | L |
Kocaelispor: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct 2026 | Beşiktaş (away)Süper Lig | 1-2 | L |
| 19 Sep 2026 | Gaziantep (home)Süper Lig | 2-0 | W |
| 13 Sep 2026 | Galatasaray (away)Süper Lig | 0-1 | L |
| 6 Sep 2026 | Samsunspor (home)Süper Lig | 1-0 | W |
| 29 Aug 2026 | Konyaspor (away)Süper Lig | 2-1 | W |
Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor head to head
In their last two meetings in our data, Alanyaspor won 1, Kocaelispor won 1 and none was drawn. The most recent, on 18 March 2026, finished Alanyaspor 5–0 Kocaelispor.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 18 Mar 2026 | Alanyaspor – KocaelisporSüper Lig | 5-0 |
| 25 Oct 2025 | Kocaelispor – AlanyasporSüper Lig | 2-0 |
All the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
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