Alverca vs Arouca prediction: Primeira Liga, Saturday 24 October

Alverca host Arouca in Primeira Liga on Saturday 24 October, kick-off 20:00 EAT. The match is played at Complexo de Alverca (Alverca do Ribatejo). Alverca are 8th in the table with 11 points from 8 games; Arouca are 5th with 14.

Who will win Alverca vs Arouca?

There is little to separate the sides: Alverca 41%, the draw 28%, Arouca 31%. Megapari's 2.17 on Alverca is shorter than our fair price of 2.41: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.

No market clears our thresholds for this match, so it carries no tip in the daily lists; the table below is the model's full view of it.

Odds: Megapari, as of 17 October 2026, 23:46 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Alverca vs Arouca

Expected goals are 1.5 for Alverca and 1.4 for Arouca, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 52%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 55%.

Alverca vs Arouca correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 12%, ahead of 2-1 (9%) and 1-2 (8%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.

Form: Alverca and Arouca in their last five

Alverca have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +5. Arouca have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +1. The results cover every competition in our data.

Alverca: last five matches

Arouca: last five matches

Alverca vs Arouca head to head

In their last two meetings in our data, Alverca won 1, Arouca won 1 and none was drawn. The most recent, on 24 April 2026, finished Alverca 2–1 Arouca.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on Alverca has shortened from 2.22 to 2.17 since the line opened: the market has moved towards them. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.94 to 1.91, so the market now expects more goals than at the open.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

All the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.