UEFA Europa League
Ararat-Armenia vs AZ prediction: UEFA Europa League, Thursday 22 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Ararat-Armenia
AZ
- Ararat-Armenia
- 24%Megapari 5.02
- Draw
- 24%Megapari 4.16
- AZ
- 52%Megapari 1.69
No tip: no market clears our thresholds for this match.
xG 1.2–1.6 · likeliest 1-1 (12%)
Ararat-Armenia host AZ in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday 22 October, kick-off 19:45 EAT. The match is played at Vazgen Sargsyan Republican (Yerevan). Ararat-Armenia are 34th in the table with 0 points from 2 games; AZ are 20th with 3.
Who will win Ararat-Armenia vs AZ?
AZ are favourites, though not by much: 52% to win, 24% for the draw and 24% for Ararat-Armenia. Megapari's 1.69 on AZ is shorter than our fair price of 1.93: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
No market clears our thresholds for this match, so it carries no tip in the daily lists; the table below is the model's full view of it.
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | Megapari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ararat-Armenia to win | 24% | 4.18 | 5.02 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.10 | 4.16 |
| AZ to win | 52% | 1.93 | 1.69 |
| Ararat-Armenia or draw | 48% | 2.07 | 2.25 |
| Draw or AZ | 76% | 1.31 | 1.19 |
| Ararat-Armenia or AZ | 76% | 1.32 | 1.26 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | 1.31 | 1.18 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 1.83 | 1.74 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45% | 2.21 | 2.19 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 69% | 1.46 | 1.41 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 55% | 1.81 | 1.68 |
| Both teams to score: no | 45% | 2.24 | 2.08 |
Odds: Megapari, as of 16 October 2026, 05:08 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Ararat-Armenia vs AZ
Expected goals are 1.2 for Ararat-Armenia and 1.6 for AZ, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 55%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 55%.
Ararat-Armenia vs AZ correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-1 at 12%, ahead of 1-2 (9%) and 0-1 (9%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.0% | 8.33 |
| 1-2 | 9.3% | 10.72 |
| 0-1 | 8.9% | 11.19 |
| 0-2 | 7.6% | 13.16 |
| 2-1 | 7.1% | 14.12 |
Form: Ararat-Armenia and AZ in their last five
Ararat-Armenia have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -6. AZ have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -1. The results cover every competition in our data.
Ararat-Armenia: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Oct 2026 | Jagiellonia Białystok (away)UEFA Europa League | 1-3 | L |
| 16 Sep 2026 | Sparta Prague (home)UEFA Europa League | 1-4 | L |
| 27 Aug 2026 | Universitatea Craiova (home)UEFA Europa League | 1-0 | W |
| 20 Aug 2026 | Universitatea Craiova (away)UEFA Europa League | 1-1 | D |
| 11 Aug 2026 | Celje (away)UEFA Champions League | 0-2 | L |
AZ: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Oct 2026 | Hapoel Be'er Sheva (home)UEFA Europa League | 2-1 | W |
| 10 Oct 2026 | Feyenoord (away)Eredivisie | 0-2 | L |
| 20 Sep 2026 | Telstar (home)Eredivisie | 1-0 | W |
| 16 Sep 2026 | Sunderland (away)UEFA Europa League | 0-1 | L |
| 11 Sep 2026 | Willem II (home)Eredivisie | 1-1 | D |
Ararat-Armenia vs AZ head to head
Ararat-Armenia and AZ have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.
The rest of the UEFA Europa League is on our Europa League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
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