Arsenal vs Everton prediction: Premier League, Saturday 24 October

Arsenal host Everton in the Premier League on Saturday 24 October, kick-off 17:00 EAT. The match is played at Emirates (London). Arsenal are 2nd in the table with 15 points from 6 games; Everton are 7th with 10.

Who will win Arsenal vs Everton?

The model makes Arsenal clear favourites at 68%, with the draw at 22% and Everton at 11%. Megapari's 1.43 on Arsenal is shorter than our fair price of 1.48: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.

Three markets clear our thresholds for this match: Arsenal to win (68%), Arsenal or draw (89%) and under 3.5 goals (77%).

Odds: Megapari, as of 17 October 2026, 23:46 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Arsenal vs Everton

Expected goals are 1.7 for Arsenal and 0.5 for Everton, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 50%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 45%.

Arsenal vs Everton correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-0 at 17%, ahead of 2-0 (15%) and 0-0 (11%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 6 matches like this one.

Form: Arsenal and Everton in their last five

Arsenal have won 4 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +4. Everton have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -1. The results cover every competition in our data.

Arsenal: last five matches

Everton: last five matches

Arsenal vs Everton head to head

In their last five meetings in our data, Arsenal won 3, Everton won none and 2 were drawn. The most recent, on 14 March 2026, finished Arsenal 2–0 Everton.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on Arsenal has shortened from 1.47 to 1.43 since the line opened: the market has moved towards them. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.74 to 1.83, so the market now expects fewer goals than at the open.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

The rest of the Premier League is on our Premier League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.