Aston Villa vs Man City prediction: Premier League, Saturday 24 October

Aston Villa host Man City in the Premier League on Saturday 24 October, kick-off 14:30 EAT. The match is played at Villa Park (Birmingham). Aston Villa are 17th in the table with 5 points from 6 games; Man City are 1st with 21.

Who will win Aston Villa vs Man City?

Man City are favourites, though not by much: 49% to win, 24% for the draw and 27% for Aston Villa. Megapari's 1.76 on Man City is shorter than our fair price of 2.05: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.

Two markets clear our thresholds for this match: over 1.5 goals (78%) and both teams to score: yes (58%).

Odds: Megapari, as of 17 October 2026, 23:46 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Aston Villa vs Man City

Goals are expected: 1.4 for Aston Villa and 1.6 for Man City, 3.0 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 58%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 58%.

Aston Villa vs Man City correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 12%, ahead of 1-2 (9%) and 2-1 (8%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 9 matches like this one.

Form: Aston Villa and Man City in their last five

Aston Villa have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +7. Man City have won 4 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +5. The results cover every competition in our data.

Aston Villa: last five matches

Man City: last five matches

Aston Villa vs Man City head to head

In their last six meetings in our data, Aston Villa won 4, Man City won 2 and none was drawn. The most recent, on 24 May 2026, finished Man City 1–2 Aston Villa.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on Man City has shortened from 1.82 to 1.76 since the line opened: the market has moved towards them. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.64 to 1.52, so the market now expects more goals than at the open.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

The rest of the Premier League is on our Premier League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.