UEFA Champions League
Aston Villa vs Viking prediction: UEFA Champions League, Wednesday 21 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Aston Villa host Viking in the UEFA Champions League on Wednesday 21 October, kick-off 22:00 EAT. The match is played at Villa Park (Birmingham). Aston Villa are 3rd in the table with 6 points from 2 games; Viking are 27th with 1.
Who will win Aston Villa vs Viking?
The model makes Aston Villa clear favourites at 70%, with the draw at 17% and Viking at 13%. Megapari's 1.23 on Aston Villa is shorter than our fair price of 1.42: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
Four markets clear our thresholds for this match: Aston Villa to win (70%), Aston Villa or draw (87%), over 1.5 goals (81%) and over 2.5 goals (66%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | Megapari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa to win Tip | 70% | 1.42 | 1.23 |
| Draw | 17% | 6.05 | 7.80 |
| Viking to win | 13% | 7.72 | 13.30 |
| Aston Villa or draw Tip | 87% | 1.15 | 1.04 |
| Draw or Viking | 30% | 3.39 | 4.68 |
| Aston Villa or Viking | 83% | 1.20 | 1.11 |
| Over 1.5 goals Tip | 81% | 1.23 | 1.04 |
| Over 2.5 goals Tip | 66% | 1.52 | 1.29 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 34% | 2.94 | 3.20 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 61% | 1.63 | 2.01 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 55% | 1.82 | 1.76 |
| Both teams to score: no | 45% | 2.23 | 1.97 |
Odds: Megapari, as of 15 October 2026, 05:08 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Aston Villa vs Viking
Goals are expected: 2.2 for Aston Villa and 1.1 for Viking, 3.4 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 66%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 55%.
Aston Villa vs Viking correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 2-1 at 10%, ahead of 1-1 (9%) and 2-0 (8%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 10 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | 9.8% | 10.26 |
| 1-1 | 9.2% | 10.92 |
| 2-0 | 8.4% | 11.85 |
| 1-0 | 7.3% | 13.74 |
| 3-1 | 7.2% | 13.91 |
Form: Aston Villa and Viking in their last five
Aston Villa have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +7. Viking have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +10. The results cover every competition in our data.
Aston Villa: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct 2026 | Fenerbahçe (home)UEFA Champions League | 6-0 | W |
| 10 Oct 2026 | Brentford (home)Premier League | 2-2 | D |
| 19 Sep 2026 | Tottenham (away)Premier League | 3-2 | W |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Nottingham Forest (home)Premier League | 1-2 | L |
| 8 Sep 2026 | Club Brugge (away)UEFA Champions League | 3-2 | W |
Viking: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Oct 2026 | Bayern Munich (home)UEFA Champions League | 3-3 | D |
| 9 Oct 2026 | Brann (away)Eliteserien | 2-0 | W |
| 20 Sep 2026 | Lillestrom (home)Eliteserien | 3-0 | W |
| 13 Sep 2026 | Kristiansund BK (home)Eliteserien | 8-1 | W |
| 9 Sep 2026 | VfB Stuttgart (away)UEFA Champions League | 1-3 | L |
Aston Villa vs Viking head to head
Aston Villa and Viking have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.
The rest of the UEFA Champions League is on our Champions League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
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