Atalanta vs Frosinone prediction: Serie A, Sunday 25 October

Atalanta host Frosinone in Serie A on Sunday 25 October, kick-off 17:00 EAT. The match is played at New Balance Arena (Bergamo). Atalanta are 10th in the table with 9 points from 6 games; Frosinone are 5th with 13.

Who will win Atalanta vs Frosinone?

Atalanta are favourites, though not by much: 59% to win, 23% for the draw and 19% for Frosinone. Megapari's 1.72 on Atalanta sits right on our fair price of 1.71.

Two markets clear our thresholds for this match: Atalanta to win (59%) and Atalanta or draw (81%).

Odds: Megapari, as of 18 October 2026, 17:04 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Atalanta vs Frosinone

Goals are expected: 1.8 for Atalanta and 0.9 for Frosinone, 2.7 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 58%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 58%.

Atalanta vs Frosinone correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-0 at 12%, ahead of 2-0 (11%) and 1-1 (11%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 9 matches like this one.

Form: Atalanta and Frosinone in their last five

Atalanta have won 2 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +0. Frosinone have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +2. The results cover every competition in our data.

Atalanta: last five matches

Frosinone: last five matches

Atalanta vs Frosinone head to head

The two have met once in our data: on 15 January 2024, Atalanta 5–0 Frosinone.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on Atalanta has drifted from 1.68 to 1.72 since the line opened: the market rates them lower than it did at the open. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.45 to 1.41, so the market now expects more goals than at the open.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

The rest of Serie A is on our Serie A page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.