Athletic Bilbao vs Getafe prediction: LaLiga, Sunday 25 October

Athletic Bilbao host Getafe in LaLiga on Sunday 25 October, kick-off 16:00 EAT. The match is played at San Mames (Bilbao). Athletic Bilbao are 9th in the table with 9 points from 7 games; Getafe are 14th with 8.

Who will win Athletic Bilbao vs Getafe?

Athletic Bilbao are favourites, though not by much: 52% to win, 29% for the draw and 19% for Getafe. Megapari's 1.70 on Athletic Bilbao is shorter than our fair price of 1.91: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.

Two markets clear our thresholds for this match: Athletic Bilbao or draw (81%) and under 3.5 goals (85%).

Odds: Megapari, as of 18 October 2026, 17:04 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Athletic Bilbao vs Getafe

The numbers point to a tight game: expected goals of 1.1 and 0.6, and under 2.5 goals at 61%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 43%.

Athletic Bilbao vs Getafe correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-0 at 19%, ahead of 0-0 (19%) and 1-1 (13%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 5 matches like this one.

Form: Athletic Bilbao and Getafe in their last five

Athletic Bilbao are unbeaten in 5 (2 wins, 3 draws), with 6 goals scored and 1 conceded. Getafe have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -3. The results cover every competition in our data.

Athletic Bilbao: last five matches

Getafe: last five matches

Athletic Bilbao vs Getafe head to head

In their last five meetings in our data, Athletic Bilbao won 2, Getafe won 2 and 1 was drawn. The most recent, on 5 April 2026, finished Getafe 2–0 Athletic Bilbao.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on Athletic Bilbao has shortened from 1.76 to 1.70 since the line opened: the market has moved towards them. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 2.38 to 2.27, so the market now expects more goals than at the open.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

The rest of LaLiga is on our La Liga page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.