Atlético Madrid vs Deportivo de A Coruna prediction: LaLiga, Saturday 24 October

Atlético Madrid host Deportivo de A Coruna in LaLiga on Saturday 24 October, kick-off 22:00 EAT. The match is played at Metropolitano (Madrid). Atlético Madrid are 2nd in the table with 22 points from 9 games; Deportivo de A Coruna are 8th with 11.

Who will win Atlético Madrid vs Deportivo de A Coruna?

The model makes Atlético Madrid clear favourites at 77%, with the draw at 15% and Deportivo de A Coruna at 8%. Megapari's 1.24 on Atlético Madrid is shorter than our fair price of 1.30: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.

Three markets clear our thresholds for this match: Atlético Madrid to win (77%), Atlético Madrid or draw (92%) and over 1.5 goals (80%).

Odds: Megapari, as of 17 October 2026, 23:46 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Atlético Madrid vs Deportivo de A Coruna

Goals are expected: 2.4 for Atlético Madrid and 0.7 for Deportivo de A Coruna, 3.2 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 60%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 48%.

Atlético Madrid vs Deportivo de A Coruna correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 2-0 at 13%, ahead of 3-0 (10%) and 1-0 (10%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.

Form: Atlético Madrid and Deportivo de A Coruna in their last five

Atlético Madrid have won all of their last 5, scoring 11 and conceding 2. Deportivo de A Coruna have not won in 5 (3 draws, 2 defeats) and scored 5 in that run. The results cover every competition in our data.

Atlético Madrid: last five matches

Deportivo de A Coruna: last five matches

Atlético Madrid vs Deportivo de A Coruna head to head

Atlético Madrid and Deportivo de A Coruna have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on Atlético Madrid has shortened from 1.34 to 1.24 since the line opened: the market has moved towards them. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.71 to 1.49, so the market now expects more goals than at the open.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

The rest of LaLiga is on our La Liga page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.