Augsburg vs Union Berlin prediction: Bundesliga, Saturday 24 October

Augsburg host Union Berlin in the Bundesliga on Saturday 24 October, kick-off 16:30 EAT. The match is played at WWK Arena (Augsburg). Augsburg are 10th in the table with 8 points from 6 games; Union Berlin are 16th with 5.

Who will win Augsburg vs Union Berlin?

Augsburg are favourites, though not by much: 53% to win, 23% for the draw and 23% for Union Berlin. Megapari pays 1.96 on Augsburg, more than our fair price of 1.88.

One market clears our thresholds for this match: both teams to score: yes (59%).

Odds: Megapari, as of 17 October 2026, 23:46 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Augsburg vs Union Berlin

Goals are expected: 1.9 for Augsburg and 1.1 for Union Berlin, 3.0 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 59%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 59%.

Augsburg vs Union Berlin correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 11%, ahead of 2-1 (10%) and 1-0 (9%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 9 matches like this one.

Form: Augsburg and Union Berlin in their last five

Augsburg have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +1. Union Berlin have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -12. The results cover every competition in our data.

Augsburg: last five matches

Union Berlin: last five matches

Augsburg vs Union Berlin head to head

In their last six meetings in our data, Augsburg won 2, Union Berlin won 2 and 2 were drawn. The most recent, on 16 May 2026, finished Union Berlin 4–0 Augsburg.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on Augsburg has drifted from 1.78 to 1.96 since the line opened: the market rates them lower than it did at the open. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.48 to 1.49, so the market now expects fewer goals than at the open.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

The rest of the Bundesliga is on our Bundesliga page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.