Eredivisie
AZ vs Twente prediction: Eredivisie, Sunday 25 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
AZ
Twente
- AZ
- 41%Megapari 2.21
- Draw
- 25%Megapari 3.82
- Twente
- 34%Megapari 2.96
- Both teams to score: yes61% · fair 1.64Bet 1.40
xG 1.5–1.4 · likeliest 1-1 (12%)
AZ host Twente in Eredivisie on Sunday 25 October, kick-off 22:00 EAT. The match is played at AFAS (Alkmaar). AZ are 2nd in the table with 20 points from 9 games; Twente are 5th with 17.
Who will win AZ vs Twente?
There is little to separate the sides: AZ 41%, the draw 25%, Twente 34%. Megapari's 2.21 on AZ is shorter than our fair price of 2.44: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
One market clears our thresholds for this match: both teams to score: yes (61%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | Megapari |
|---|---|---|---|
| AZ to win | 41% | 2.44 | 2.21 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.94 | 3.82 |
| Twente to win | 34% | 2.98 | 2.96 |
| AZ or draw | 66% | 1.51 | 1.40 |
| Draw or Twente | 59% | 1.70 | 1.67 |
| AZ or Twente | 75% | 1.34 | 1.27 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | 1.30 | 1.10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 1.69 | 1.41 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41% | 2.44 | 2.52 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 68% | 1.46 | 1.70 |
| Both teams to score: yes Tip | 61% | 1.64 | 1.40 |
| Both teams to score: no | 39% | 2.56 | 2.73 |
Odds: Megapari, as of 18 October 2026, 23:45 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in AZ vs Twente
Goals are expected: 1.5 for AZ and 1.4 for Twente, 2.8 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 59%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 61%.
AZ vs Twente correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-1 at 12%, ahead of 2-1 (9%) and 1-2 (8%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.2% | 8.21 |
| 2-1 | 8.6% | 11.60 |
| 1-2 | 8.1% | 12.33 |
| 1-0 | 8.0% | 12.52 |
| 0-1 | 7.5% | 13.37 |
Form: AZ and Twente in their last five
AZ have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -1. Twente have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +3. The results cover every competition in our data.
AZ: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Oct 2026 | Cambuur (away)Eredivisie | 2-2 | D |
| 15 Oct 2026 | Hapoel Be'er Sheva (home)UEFA Europa League | 2-1 | W |
| 10 Oct 2026 | Feyenoord (away)Eredivisie | 0-2 | L |
| 20 Sep 2026 | Telstar (home)Eredivisie | 1-0 | W |
| 16 Sep 2026 | Sunderland (away)UEFA Europa League | 0-1 | L |
Twente: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Oct 2026 | Utrecht (home)Eredivisie | 1-2 | L |
| 15 Oct 2026 | Thun (home)UEFA Conference League | 1-0 | W |
| 10 Oct 2026 | Fortuna Sittard (away)Eredivisie | 1-1 | D |
| 20 Sep 2026 | PSV Eindhoven (home)Eredivisie | 3-2 | W |
| 12 Sep 2026 | ADO Den Haag (home)Eredivisie | 2-0 | W |
AZ vs Twente head to head
In their last six meetings in our data, AZ won 3, Twente won 2 and 1 was drawn. The most recent, on 3 May 2026, finished AZ 2–2 Twente.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 3 May 2026 | AZ – TwenteEredivisie | 2-2 |
| 30 Nov 2025 | Twente – AZEredivisie | 1-0 |
| 14 May 2025 | Twente – AZEredivisie | 2-3 |
| 21 Dec 2024 | AZ – TwenteEredivisie | 1-0 |
| 5 May 2024 | AZ – TwenteEredivisie | 2-1 |
| 13 Jan 2024 | Twente – AZEredivisie | 2-1 |
How the odds have moved
Megapari's price on AZ has shortened from 2.26 to 2.21 since the line opened: the market has moved towards them. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.44 to 1.41, so the market now expects more goals than at the open.
| Bet | Opening odds | Latest odds |
|---|---|---|
| AZ to win | 2.26 | 2.21 ↓ |
| Draw | 3.86 | 3.82 ↓ |
| Twente to win | 2.85 | 2.96 ↑ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.44 | 1.41 ↓ |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.43 | 2.52 ↑ |
| Both teams to score: yes | 1.42 | 1.40 ↓ |
| Both teams to score: no | 2.66 | 2.73 ↑ |
Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.
All the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
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