Barcelona vs Real Madrid prediction: LaLiga, Sunday 25 October

Barcelona host Real Madrid in LaLiga on Sunday 25 October, kick-off 23:00 EAT. The match is played at Camp Nou (Barcelona). Barcelona are 1st in the table with 27 points from 9 games; Real Madrid are 4th with 18.

Who will win Barcelona vs Real Madrid?

The model makes Barcelona clear favourites at 61%, with the draw at 19% and Real Madrid at 20%. Megapari's 1.54 on Barcelona is shorter than our fair price of 1.65: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.

Four markets clear our thresholds for this match: Barcelona to win (61%), over 1.5 goals (85%), over 2.5 goals (72%) and both teams to score: yes (66%).

Odds: Megapari, as of 18 October 2026, 23:45 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Barcelona vs Real Madrid

Goals are expected: 2.4 for Barcelona and 1.5 for Real Madrid, 3.9 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 72%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 66%.

Barcelona vs Real Madrid correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 2-1 at 9%, ahead of 1-1 (8%) and 3-1 (7%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 11 matches like this one.

Form: Barcelona and Real Madrid in their last five

Barcelona have won all of their last 5, scoring 22 and conceding 6. Real Madrid have won 4 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +5. The results cover every competition in our data.

Barcelona: last five matches

Real Madrid: last five matches

Barcelona vs Real Madrid head to head

In their last six meetings in our data, Barcelona won 3, Real Madrid won 3 and none was drawn. The most recent, on 10 May 2026, finished Barcelona 2–0 Real Madrid.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on Barcelona has shortened from 1.65 to 1.54 since the line opened: the market has moved towards them. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.25 to 1.20, so the market now expects more goals than at the open.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

The rest of LaLiga is on our La Liga page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.