UEFA Champions League
Bayern Munich vs Arsenal prediction: UEFA Champions League, Wednesday 21 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Bayern Munich
Arsenal
- Bayern Munich
- 41%Megapari 2.23
- Draw
- 26%Megapari 3.92
- Arsenal
- 33%Megapari 3.21
- Both teams to score: yes58% · fair 1.71Bet 1.52
xG 1.5–1.4 · likeliest 1-1 (12%)
Bayern Munich host Arsenal in the UEFA Champions League on Wednesday 21 October, kick-off 22:00 EAT. The match is played at Allianz Arena (Munich). Bayern Munich are 10th in the table with 4 points from 2 games; Arsenal are 7th with 6.
Who will win Bayern Munich vs Arsenal?
There is little to separate the sides: Bayern Munich 41%, the draw 26%, Arsenal 33%. Megapari's 2.23 on Bayern Munich is shorter than our fair price of 2.42: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
One market clears our thresholds for this match: both teams to score: yes (58%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | Megapari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich to win | 41% | 2.42 | 2.23 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.92 | 3.92 |
| Arsenal to win | 33% | 3.02 | 3.21 |
| Bayern Munich or draw | 67% | 1.50 | 1.40 |
| Draw or Arsenal | 59% | 1.70 | 1.73 |
| Bayern Munich or Arsenal | 74% | 1.34 | 1.30 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | 1.31 | 1.16 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 1.78 | 1.68 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44% | 2.28 | 2.38 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 69% | 1.46 | 1.48 |
| Both teams to score: yes Tip | 58% | 1.71 | 1.52 |
| Both teams to score: no | 42% | 2.41 | 2.40 |
Odds: Megapari, as of 15 October 2026, 05:08 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Bayern Munich vs Arsenal
Expected goals are 1.5 for Bayern Munich and 1.4 for Arsenal, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 56%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 58%.
Bayern Munich vs Arsenal correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-1 at 12%, ahead of 2-1 (9%) and 1-2 (8%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.2% | 8.18 |
| 2-1 | 8.6% | 11.70 |
| 1-2 | 8.2% | 12.24 |
| 1-0 | 8.0% | 12.53 |
| 0-1 | 7.6% | 13.14 |
Form: Bayern Munich and Arsenal in their last five
Bayern Munich are unbeaten in 5 (3 wins, 2 draws), with 19 goals scored and 6 conceded. Arsenal have won 4 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +4. The results cover every competition in our data.
Bayern Munich: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Oct 2026 | Viking (away)UEFA Champions League | 3-3 | D |
| 10 Oct 2026 | Augsburg (away)Bundesliga | 2-2 | D |
| 18 Sep 2026 | Union Berlin (home)Bundesliga | 7-0 | W |
| 13 Sep 2026 | SV 07 Elversberg (away)Bundesliga | 2-1 | W |
| 10 Sep 2026 | Bodø/Glimt (home)UEFA Champions League | 5-0 | W |
Arsenal: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Oct 2026 | Lille (home)UEFA Champions League | 3-0 | W |
| 10 Oct 2026 | Leeds (home)Premier League | 2-1 | W |
| 19 Sep 2026 | Brighton (away)Premier League | 0-3 | L |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Sunderland (away)Premier League | 2-0 | W |
| 9 Sep 2026 | Napoli (away)UEFA Champions League | 1-0 | W |
Bayern Munich vs Arsenal head to head
In their last three meetings in our data, Bayern Munich won 1, Arsenal won 1 and 1 was drawn. The most recent, on 26 November 2025, finished Arsenal 3–1 Bayern Munich.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 26 Nov 2025 | Arsenal – Bayern MunichUEFA Champions League | 3-1 |
| 17 Apr 2024 | Bayern Munich – ArsenalUEFA Champions League | 1-0 |
| 9 Apr 2024 | Arsenal – Bayern MunichUEFA Champions League | 2-2 |
The rest of the UEFA Champions League is on our Champions League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
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