Bundesliga
Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig prediction: Bundesliga, Saturday 17 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Bayern Munich
RB Leipzig
- Bayern Munich
- 78%Megapari 1.27
- Draw
- 13%Megapari 7.03
- RB Leipzig
- 9%Megapari 11.20
- Bayern Munich to win78% · fair 1.29Bet 1.27
- Bayern Munich or draw91% · fair 1.10Bet 1.05
- Over 1.5 goals89% · fair 1.13Bet 1.04
- Over 2.5 goals77% · fair 1.30Bet 1.11
- Both teams to score: yes64% · fair 1.57Bet 1.38
xG 3.3–1.2 · likeliest 3-1 (8%)
Bayern Munich host RB Leipzig in the Bundesliga on Saturday 17 October, kick-off 19:30 EAT. The match is played at Allianz Arena (Munich). Bayern Munich are 2nd in the table with 11 points from 5 games; RB Leipzig are 5th with 9.
Who will win Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig?
The model makes Bayern Munich clear favourites at 78%, with the draw at 13% and RB Leipzig at 9%. Megapari's 1.27 on Bayern Munich sits right on our fair price of 1.29.
Five markets clear our thresholds for this match: Bayern Munich to win (78%), Bayern Munich or draw (91%), over 1.5 goals (89%), over 2.5 goals (77%) and both teams to score: yes (64%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | Megapari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich to win Tip | 78% | 1.29 | 1.27 |
| Draw | 13% | 7.56 | 7.03 |
| RB Leipzig to win | 9% | 10.96 | 11.20 |
| Bayern Munich or draw Tip | 91% | 1.10 | 1.05 |
| Draw or RB Leipzig | 22% | 4.47 | 4.14 |
| Bayern Munich or RB Leipzig | 87% | 1.15 | 1.13 |
| Over 1.5 goals Tip | 89% | 1.13 | 1.04 |
| Over 2.5 goals Tip | 77% | 1.30 | 1.11 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 23% | 4.35 | 4.80 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 47% | 2.12 | 2.68 |
| Both teams to score: yes Tip | 64% | 1.57 | 1.38 |
| Both teams to score: no | 36% | 2.75 | 2.85 |
Odds: Megapari, as of 10 October 2026, 23:46 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig
Goals are expected: 3.3 for Bayern Munich and 1.2 for RB Leipzig, 4.5 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 77%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 64%.
Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 3-1 at 8%, ahead of 2-1 (7%) and 3-0 (7%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 12 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | 8.0% | 12.50 |
| 2-1 | 7.2% | 13.85 |
| 3-0 | 6.8% | 14.77 |
| 4-1 | 6.7% | 15.04 |
| 2-0 | 6.1% | 16.37 |
Form: Bayern Munich and RB Leipzig in their last five
Bayern Munich are unbeaten in 5 (3 wins, 2 draws), with 16 goals scored and 3 conceded. RB Leipzig have won 2 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +4. The results cover every competition in our data.
Bayern Munich: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct 2026 | Augsburg (away)Bundesliga | 2-2 | D |
| 18 Sep 2026 | Union Berlin (home)Bundesliga | 7-0 | W |
| 13 Sep 2026 | SV 07 Elversberg (away)Bundesliga | 2-1 | W |
| 10 Sep 2026 | Bodø/Glimt (home)UEFA Champions League | 5-0 | W |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Schalke 04 (away)Bundesliga | 0-0 | D |
RB Leipzig: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct 2026 | Eintracht Frankfurt (home)Bundesliga | 6-0 | W |
| 20 Sep 2026 | Leverkusen (away)Bundesliga | 0-2 | L |
| 13 Sep 2026 | Hamburger SV (home)Bundesliga | 5-0 | W |
| 10 Sep 2026 | Como (away)UEFA Champions League | 1-4 | L |
| 5 Sep 2026 | SV Werder Bremen (away)Bundesliga | 1-3 | L |
Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig head to head
In their last five meetings in our data, Bayern Munich won 4, RB Leipzig won none and 1 was drawn. The most recent, on 17 January 2026, finished RB Leipzig 1–5 Bayern Munich.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 17 Jan 2026 | RB Leipzig – Bayern MunichBundesliga | 1-5 |
| 22 Aug 2025 | Bayern Munich – RB LeipzigBundesliga | 6-0 |
| 3 May 2025 | RB Leipzig – Bayern MunichBundesliga | 3-3 |
| 20 Dec 2024 | Bayern Munich – RB LeipzigBundesliga | 5-1 |
| 24 Feb 2024 | Bayern Munich – RB LeipzigBundesliga | 2-1 |
The rest of the Bundesliga is on our Bundesliga page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
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