Serie A
Bologna vs Inter prediction: Serie A, Saturday 17 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Bologna host Inter in Serie A on Saturday 17 October, kick-off 19:00 EAT. The match is played at Renato Dall'Ara (Bologna). Bologna are 19th in the table with 2 points from 5 games; Inter are 1st with 16.
Who will win Bologna vs Inter?
Inter are favourites, though not by much: 58% to win, 23% for the draw and 19% for Bologna. Megapari's 1.69 on Inter sits right on our fair price of 1.72.
Two markets clear our thresholds for this match: Inter to win (58%) and draw or Inter (81%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | Megapari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna to win | 19% | 5.38 | 5.55 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.30 | 4.12 |
| Inter to win Tip | 58% | 1.72 | 1.69 |
| Bologna or draw | 42% | 2.39 | 2.31 |
| Draw or Inter Tip | 81% | 1.23 | 1.18 |
| Bologna or Inter | 77% | 1.30 | 1.28 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | 1.28 | 1.16 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 1.77 | 1.72 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44% | 2.30 | 2.30 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 67% | 1.50 | 1.44 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 55% | 1.81 | 1.66 |
| Both teams to score: no | 45% | 2.24 | 2.12 |
Odds: Megapari, as of 10 October 2026, 23:46 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Bologna vs Inter
Expected goals are 1.0 for Bologna and 1.9 for Inter, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 56%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 55%.
Bologna vs Inter correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-1 at 11%, ahead of 1-2 (10%) and 0-2 (10%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 9 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 10.6% | 9.41 |
| 1-2 | 9.9% | 10.06 |
| 0-2 | 9.5% | 10.49 |
| 0-1 | 9.4% | 10.65 |
| 1-3 | 6.5% | 15.50 |
Form: Bologna and Inter in their last five
Bologna have not won in 5 (2 draws, 3 defeats) and scored 3 in that run. Inter have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +5. The results cover every competition in our data.
Bologna: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Torino (home)Serie A | 1-1 | D |
| 13 Sep 2026 | Napoli (away)Serie A | 0-1 | L |
| 6 Sep 2026 | US Sassuolo (home)Serie A | 2-2 | D |
| 31 Aug 2026 | Atalanta (away)Serie A | 0-1 | L |
| 24 Aug 2026 | Lazio (home)Serie A | 0-1 | L |
Inter: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct 2026 | Parma (home)Serie A | 3-0 | W |
| 19 Sep 2026 | Roma (away)Serie A | 2-2 | D |
| 14 Sep 2026 | Udinese (home)Serie A | 5-3 | W |
| 8 Sep 2026 | Real Madrid (away)UEFA Champions League | 1-2 | L |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Napoli (home)Serie A | 3-2 | W |
Bologna vs Inter head to head
In their last six meetings in our data, Bologna won 1, Inter won 2 and 3 were drawn. The most recent, on 23 May 2026, finished Bologna 3–3 Inter.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 23 May 2026 | Bologna – InterSerie A | 3-3 |
| 4 Jan 2026 | Inter – BolognaSerie A | 3-1 |
| 20 Apr 2025 | Bologna – InterSerie A | 1-0 |
| 15 Jan 2025 | Inter – BolognaSerie A | 2-2 |
| 9 Mar 2024 | Bologna – InterSerie A | 0-1 |
| 7 Oct 2023 | Inter – BolognaSerie A | 2-2 |
The rest of Serie A is on our Serie A page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
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