EFL Championship
Bolton Wanderers vs Middlesbrough prediction: EFL Championship, Friday 23 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Bolton Wanderers
Middlesbrough
- Bolton Wanderers
- 27%Megapari 4.19
- Draw
- 25%Megapari 3.95
- Middlesbrough
- 48%Megapari 1.71
No tip: no market clears our thresholds for this match.
xG 1.3–1.5 · likeliest 1-1 (13%)
Bolton Wanderers host Middlesbrough in the EFL Championship on Friday 23 October, kick-off 22:00 EAT.
Who will win Bolton Wanderers vs Middlesbrough?
Middlesbrough are favourites, though not by much: 48% to win, 25% for the draw and 27% for Bolton Wanderers. Megapari's 1.71 on Middlesbrough is shorter than our fair price of 2.08: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
No market clears our thresholds for this match, so it carries no tip in the daily lists; the table below is the model's full view of it.
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | Megapari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bolton Wanderers to win | 27% | 3.70 | 4.19 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.01 | 3.95 |
| Middlesbrough to win | 48% | 2.08 | 1.71 |
| Bolton Wanderers or draw | 52% | 1.92 | – |
| Draw or Middlesbrough | 73% | 1.37 | – |
| Bolton Wanderers or Middlesbrough | 75% | 1.33 | – |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | 1.32 | – |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 1.91 | – |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48% | 2.10 | – |
| Under 3.5 goals | 70% | 1.43 | – |
| Both teams to score: yes | 55% | 1.83 | – |
| Both teams to score: no | 45% | 2.21 | – |
Odds: Megapari, as of 16 October 2026, 23:48 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Bolton Wanderers vs Middlesbrough
Expected goals are 1.3 for Bolton Wanderers and 1.5 for Middlesbrough, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 52%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 55%.
Bolton Wanderers vs Middlesbrough correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-1 at 13%, ahead of 0-1 (9%) and 1-2 (9%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.5% | 7.99 |
| 0-1 | 9.0% | 11.07 |
| 1-2 | 8.9% | 11.24 |
| 1-0 | 7.6% | 13.07 |
| 2-1 | 7.6% | 13.14 |
Form: Bolton Wanderers and Middlesbrough in their last five
Bolton Wanderers have won 2 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -4. Middlesbrough are unbeaten in 5 (2 wins, 3 draws), with 10 goals scored and 8 conceded. The results cover every competition in our data.
Bolton Wanderers: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | Norwich City (away)EFL Championship | 4-3 | W |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Cardiff City (home)EFL Championship | 1-0 | W |
| 8 Sep 2026 | West Ham (home)EFL Championship | 2-3 | L |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Millwall (away)EFL Championship | 0-4 | L |
| 1 Sep 2026 | Sheffield United (away)EFL Championship | 2-3 | L |
Middlesbrough: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Birmingham City (away)EFL Championship | 2-2 | D |
| 15 Sep 2026 | Millwall (home)EFL Championship | 2-2 | D |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Norwich City (home)EFL Championship | 4-3 | W |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Queens Park Rangers (away)EFL Championship | 1-0 | W |
| 2 Sep 2026 | Burnley (away)EFL Championship | 1-1 | D |
Bolton Wanderers vs Middlesbrough head to head
Bolton Wanderers and Middlesbrough have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.
The rest of the EFL Championship is on our Championship page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
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