UEFA Europa League
Bournemouth vs AC Milan prediction: UEFA Europa League, Thursday 22 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Bournemouth
AC Milan
- Bournemouth
- 49%Megapari 2.26
- Draw
- 25%Megapari 3.71
- AC Milan
- 27%Megapari 3.12
- Over 1.5 goals78% · fair 1.27Bet 1.19
xG 1.9–1.1 · likeliest 1-1 (11%)
Bournemouth host AC Milan in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday 22 October, kick-off 22:00 EAT. The match is played at Vitality (Bournemouth). Bournemouth are 5th in the table with 6 points from 2 games; AC Milan are 16th with 3.
Who will win Bournemouth vs AC Milan?
Bournemouth are favourites, though not by much: 49% to win, 25% for the draw and 27% for AC Milan. Megapari pays 2.26 on Bournemouth, more than our fair price of 2.05.
One market clears our thresholds for this match: over 1.5 goals (78%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | Megapari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth to win | 49% | 2.05 | 2.26 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.06 | 3.71 |
| AC Milan to win | 27% | 3.76 | 3.12 |
| Bournemouth or draw | 73% | 1.36 | 1.40 |
| Draw or AC Milan | 51% | 1.95 | 1.68 |
| Bournemouth or AC Milan | 75% | 1.33 | 1.30 |
| Over 1.5 goals Tip | 78% | 1.27 | 1.19 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 1.80 | 1.77 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44% | 2.25 | 2.14 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 66% | 1.52 | 1.39 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57% | 1.74 | 1.58 |
| Both teams to score: no | 43% | 2.34 | 2.26 |
Odds: Megapari, as of 16 October 2026, 05:08 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Bournemouth vs AC Milan
Expected goals are 1.9 for Bournemouth and 1.1 for AC Milan, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 56%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 57%.
Bournemouth vs AC Milan correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-1 at 11%, ahead of 2-1 (10%) and 1-0 (9%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 9 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 10.8% | 9.29 |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | 10.15 |
| 1-0 | 8.7% | 11.52 |
| 2-0 | 8.6% | 11.56 |
| 3-1 | 6.2% | 16.03 |
Form: Bournemouth and AC Milan in their last five
Bournemouth have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -1. AC Milan have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +5. The results cover every competition in our data.
Bournemouth: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Oct 2026 | Sturm Graz (home)UEFA Europa League | 3-0 | W |
| 10 Oct 2026 | Chelsea (away)Premier League | 1-5 | L |
| 20 Sep 2026 | Liverpool (home)Premier League | 0-1 | L |
| 17 Sep 2026 | Real Sociedad (away)UEFA Europa League | 2-1 | W |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Brentford (home)Premier League | 2-2 | D |
AC Milan: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Oct 2026 | Red Bull Salzburg (away)UEFA Europa League | 4-0 | W |
| 11 Oct 2026 | US Sassuolo (away)Serie A | 1-1 | D |
| 20 Sep 2026 | US Lecce (home)Serie A | 3-0 | W |
| 16 Sep 2026 | Benfica (home)UEFA Europa League | 0-2 | L |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Lazio (away)Serie A | 2-2 | D |
Bournemouth vs AC Milan head to head
Bournemouth and AC Milan have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.
The rest of the UEFA Europa League is on our Europa League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
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