Bournemouth vs Sunderland prediction: Premier League, Sunday 18 October

Bournemouth host Sunderland in the Premier League on Sunday 18 October, kick-off 16:00 EAT. The match is played at Vitality (Bournemouth). Bournemouth are 17th in the table with 3 points from 6 games; Sunderland are 16th with 4.

Who will win Bournemouth vs Sunderland?

Bournemouth are favourites, though not by much: 51% to win, 26% for the draw and 23% for Sunderland. Megapari pays 2.04 on Bournemouth, more than our fair price of 1.98.

No market clears our thresholds for this match, so it carries no tip in the daily lists; the table below is the model's full view of it.

Odds: Megapari, as of 11 October 2026, 17:08 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Bournemouth vs Sunderland

Expected goals are 1.6 for Bournemouth and 0.9 for Sunderland, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 51%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 54%.

Bournemouth vs Sunderland correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 12%, ahead of 1-0 (12%) and 2-0 (10%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.

Form: Bournemouth and Sunderland in their last five

Bournemouth have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -4. Sunderland have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -5. The results cover every competition in our data.

Bournemouth: last five matches

Sunderland: last five matches

Bournemouth vs Sunderland head to head

In their last two meetings in our data, Bournemouth won none, Sunderland won 1 and 1 was drawn. The most recent, on 28 February 2026, finished Bournemouth 1–1 Sunderland.

The rest of the Premier League is on our Premier League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.